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Pete,
The Dow has moved up strongly over the last several days and some of its
components look over-extended (e.g. MO, SBC, MRK) to me. Other DOW
components seem to be retracing big declines (e.g. HD, EK) and these
retracements will run out of steam in short order. Although the DOW broke
through some resitance today (10/30/00), a few days of consolidation at its
current level appears likely to me. I got my crystal ball at a flea market
and it doesn't see much further than a few days (3 to 7) but the price was
right.
On the other hand, NDX has tested its May lows 3 times in the last couple of
weeks and today's decline, at least in QQQ, came on significantly lower
volume than we have seen on previous declines towards the May low. Assuming
the May low holds, I see NDX headed North from here for at least a few days.
I don't follow the OEX specifically so I can't comment on that index.
What time frame does your analysis consider and what makes you think the DOW
is headed up and the NDX is headed down?
Thanks,
Dan
>From: "Pete" <plieber@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Reply-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
>To: "RealTraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: [RT] Buy the DJIA (DJX), Short NDX and OEX
>Date: Mon, 30 Oct 2000 23:44:35 -0500
>
>The DJIA looks to be a whole lot stronger than either the NDX or OEX. I
>still look for new lows in the OEX and NDX. It doesn't look like the DJ-30
>will break down. For you stock traders get out of tech and mid-cap look to
>buy basic large cap.
>
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