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Rats are professional scavengers. Nature has programmed their brains to
keep track of where they have been and where there wasn't food. The only
reason they go down a path in a maze is to get something to eat. Put a
starving human in a maze and see how many times he'll go down the same empty
path looking for food. Put a 18 year-old male in a maze and tell him that
Britney Spears is in there thinking about him and see how many times he'll
go down the same empty path.
The author of this article was talking about investors trying to become
position traders, not talking about traders trading for a living. Tim
Morge's recent post regarding cautious persistence in trading this market is
a perfect example of why you sometimes might want to double back. Because
most everyone else isn't....yet.
The author stated that people began piling into internet stocks "late last
year". In fact, people were piling into internet stocks way back in mid-98
when the absurdity began. Interesting to see what Zweig's opinion was then
seeing as the "new economy" spin was just getting started. Thanks for
telling us that the market is down, sport.
Finally, this article was in contradiction with itself on a fundamental
level. On one hand it lambasted people for piling in to aggressive growth
funds/stocks because they have performed well in the past. On the other
hand it lambasted people because they didn't follow the blinking lights but
rather tried to predict them. I agree with him on one thing: people who
don't know how to trade and aren't interested in learning, shouldn't trade.
Interesting anecdotes about the experiments on humans though.
Kent (both halves fully engaged)
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