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I thought the whole point of TA was to find probabilities, not certainties.
Any good technician will say that there is a likelyhood of the market doing
something, but he will be ready to change his mind if the market gives off
other indications. So with any technician, you can certainly find places
where his call was wrong, but that doesn't mean he sank with the ship.
Kent
-----Original Message-----
From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sunday, October 29, 2000 8:58 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Why rats and pigeons might make better investors than
people do
Even "wrong" can be difficult to measure. A technician has guideposts
along the way to tell him/her when the price analysis is wrong and a
position should be closed or reversed. Technicians commenting for the
media are not generally given the opportunity to say "... but if x price
is broken, we will exit/reverse the position." Thus the "track records"
shown for each guest on CNBC represents only a "buy and hold" strategy,
not the real world. I suppose there are some analysts who would hold
through some of the 75%+ draw downs shown, but most would have the sense
to get out somewhat earlier.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Steven W. Poser" <swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, October 29, 2000 6:11 AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Why rats and pigeons might make better investors than
people do
> As for the CNBC comment, I suspect if the study looked at the % of
> technicians that were wrong compared to the % offundamental analysts
that
> were wrong, they'd get a different result.
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