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Even "wrong" can be difficult to measure. A technician has guideposts
along the way to tell him/her when the price analysis is wrong and a
position should be closed or reversed. Technicians commenting for the
media are not generally given the opportunity to say "... but if x price
is broken, we will exit/reverse the position." Thus the "track records"
shown for each guest on CNBC represents only a "buy and hold" strategy,
not the real world. I suppose there are some analysts who would hold
through some of the 75%+ draw downs shown, but most would have the sense
to get out somewhat earlier.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Steven W. Poser" <swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, October 29, 2000 6:11 AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Why rats and pigeons might make better investors than
people do
> As for the CNBC comment, I suspect if the study looked at the % of
> technicians that were wrong compared to the % offundamental analysts
that
> were wrong, they'd get a different result.
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