Re: [RT] MKT: Where its heading

["dbisny" <dbisny@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Utilizing my father's TA, Double bottom in hourly SPX chart. 
Also, a gap about to be filled?
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From: 
  <A href="mailto:onwingsofeagles@xxxxxxxxxxxxx"; 
  title=onwingsofeagles@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>Gitanshu Buch 
  To: <A 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx"; 
  title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx 
  Cc: <A 
  href="mailto:swingmachine@xxxxxxxxxxx"; 
  title=swingmachine@xxxxxxxxxxx>swingmachine 
  Sent: Thursday, October 19, 2000 1:41 
  PM
  Subject: Re: [RT] MKT: Where its 
  heading
  
   
   
  >an analysis of the DAILY 
  DOW
   
  Worth a lot. 
   
  Looking at a bottom-up formation of the (so-far) 2 day rally:
   
  a/ Mostly retail buying in INTC, Banks, Brokers, 
  QQQ.
   
  b/ Institutions huge participants in MSFT, TXN.
   
  c/ Generally across the board rallies on significantly lower 
  volume.
   
  d/ 2:1 NYSE new lows over new highs, 3.5:1 Nasdaq in favor 
  of new lows even though up/down ratios are hugely biased long side (10:2 
  Nasdaq up:down vol) and 6:2 NYSE up:down volume). As recounted here few weeks 
  ago, which one is predictor of the turn being here? Don't know.... all I know 
  is that the new lows yesterday expanded despite yesterday's 
  action.
   
  e/ The 3 E's everyone was talking about in the media 
  recently (but conveniently has now forgotten):
   
  Euro: Looking at persistent 
  Euro-sensitivity for the McDonalds and Gillettes of the world. Just overlay 
  the charts and train your trading system to make you $$ in the Euro to make $$ 
  in these stocks.
   
  Energy: still high. Lowest inventory levels in 20+ years for 
  both CL and NG. Of course, NG having sold off inspite of this news indicates 
  that NG may have put in its seasonal peak... and CL shouldn't be far behind. 
  
   
  Earnings? from today's IBD: 81 SPX components have reported 
  warnings this year so far into the qtr, v/s 46 components last year - with 
  same # reporting.
   
  f/ # of stocks located in top/bottom decile 
  of their annual range on the major indices:
   
  Top 10% of 52 week range:
  DJIA = 2 (SBC, MO)
  SPX =  36
  NDX = 4 (CEFT, CIEN, LNCR, and the hitherto lowly 
  PSFT)
  Midcap 400 = 38 (this is where its all at this year - just 
  like last year was NDX)
   
  Bottom 10% of 52 week range:
  DJIA = 11 (5 times more than top decile)
  NDX = 28 (7 times more than top decile)
  SPX = 103 (3 times more than the top decile)
  Midcap 400 = 44 (about even with the top 10 
  decile)
   
  This picture was virtually reversed at this stage last year. 
  Last year, we had 554 Nasdaq stocks AVERAGING returns above the 300% mark for 
  the year. At this stage, we had ALL of those in the top 10% of their annual 
  range. 
   
  Last year at this time we had 32 names in the SPX up 
  100% or more YTD. This year we have 29. So we know in an obviously managed 
  index that rewards growth... where is the performance?
   
  There were complaints of narrow market heard in the media 
  last year when it was really widespread buying.
   
  Now that nobody's complaining about a narrow market, guess 
  what.
   
  Its a bear market, only this time, its not a stealth bear. 
  Its writ large across all the benchmark indices, save 2. The small caps and 
  the mid caps. But most mutual funds, of course, benchmark the SPX - even 
  though 97% of their holdings are NDX components (3% being cash or 
  EMC).
   
  Intraday 20% rallies make you happy, well, good for you! 
  What's an annualized 50% return when you can make 40% of that in one 
  hour?
   
  Doesn't matter if we call it stealth bear or bull in bear's 
  clothes or some such anti-Animals Anonymous politically incorrect term - 
  as usual, its still a game of owning that what's going up and shorting that 
  what's going down.
   
  GitanshuTo 
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