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Let me try my hand using Near Impulse
theory.
AOL has extinguished its downside impulse today and
should reverse to the upside on Wednesday. Another turn is forecast for Monday,
10/23, and assuming we are moving up into that date, it should reverse to down.
I would expect a move no higher that 50 to 53 before continuing its bearish
trend down. Another trend change is forecast for 11/3 but it is too early to
determine the direction it will take.
Jim WhitePivot Research & Trading Co.Pivottrader.com
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
<A title=onwingsofeagles@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:onwingsofeagles@xxxxxxxxxxxxx">Gitanshu Buch
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, October 17, 2000 8:55
AM
Subject: [RT] STK: AOL, DIS
Whatever has kicked off this latest selloff, the stock is
now approaching the critical list. Like CSCO at 50, we may find buyers for AOL
at 45 (last trade 45.69). However, with a monthly close at current levels, we
will have put in an outside bar with a down close reversal for the long term
out of a multi-month consolidation. Given the spikes from here on down (on the
way up), one needs to look elsewhere (not the monthly chart) for meaningful
support.
$20 is not out of the question, but at the present chart
structure it is as outlandish as calling $40 on YHOO once YHOO broke
$120.
72% of today's AOL volume thus far = block
volume.
Meantime, a Long Disney Short AOL spread has been rewarding
indeed - though Disney is looking 20% lower from $38.50 once it broke its 200
day on rising volume coming out of a yearly low in volatility.
That in turn would setup the perfect long DIS seasonal
trade, where December-Jan are one of the more bullish months for
DIS.
GitanshuTo
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