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Let me see if I have this right. All I have to do is sell all my long
positions into a short lived rally coming and then short the world? I
can't lose.. I'm guaranteed to make a fortune and the risk is zero since
the DOW has seen its high, and that's a lock? I assume that the NAS has
also seen its high and we aren't likely to ever see 4,000 again either,
right? Oh, and INTC and NT and GE have seen their highs too and T is never
coming back and God is bringing down the Death Angel on every equity listed.
Not sure how long most of you have been in the markets but I remember when
there was a rumor .. a rumor that was so incredible that the guy who wrote
about the rumor was laughed off Wall Street. You see, the rumor this idiot
had the nerve to orate was that the DOW would break 1,000 ..
***1000!!!*** Bwahahahahaha .. what an idiot.
Since then, I've watched the naysayers and bone throwers howl and lose
money hand over fist and over and over and over and over. Why? Why did
this happen? Because the economy began to grow after the horror of the
Carter years with its 23% interest rates and nearly as high unemployment.
It is my sincere belief that most chartist predictions and other technical
folk's predictions come true due to self fulfilling prophecies. The
tech crowd so believes in their charts that they buy/sell into those
beliefs until the prophecy is a reality. So, do I follow the techie
forcasts? You bet I watch them.. I have to watch them because they are
telling me what they are going to do and if their technique is popular, a
whole lot of other chart-techies are going to be marching to the same place
at the same time.
Then there is also the "join the crowd" syndrome. It is *very* popular to
be a bear right now. If you're bearish, you're smart, if you're bullish,
you're an idiot. This is so prevelant that it's laughable.. the penguins
marching into the ocean on CNBC comes to mind. A ton of money is still
flowing into mutuals and people have more of it to put in than ever before
in history. Don't discount these individual investors either .. these
newbies. I did .. I tried to short internet stocks when they were running
them up to Oz and got my head handed to me. Then the funds tried the same
thing and got taken apart so they joined the madness and cleaned up.
(Yeah, I joined in too for a while)
All I am trying to say here, (I know it's long but I seldom post), is don't
let charts convince you of things that have no bearing on reality. Cash is
real .. investor sentiment is real.. a booming economy is real and people
who will not tolerate a 5% bond yield are real. Am I saying buy away here?
Nope. I'm just saying don't let all this techie talk convince you that
the fundamentals are invalid. I covered most of my shorts when INTC showed
strength into Thursday and I'm now mostly long although not heavily. We
tested the lows, we had high volume but the bears say we didn't capitulate.
I'll tell you one thing, when this thing clears the pads and the techies
begin covering, some real capitulation will take place. I've rarely seen
such shorting and put volume and when I have, it was just before they got
their lunch.
Be nimble my friends .. Oil service has only begun to profit from the price
of crude and there are a few other areas out there which will be safe
harbors until the covering frenzy begins. In the mean time, short
yesterday's strength and buy yesterday's weakness. It's not so hard to
make money in this market, it's just difficult to see through the smoke and
mirrors of the bulls and the lightening and wrath of God haze of the
bears. Or, you can just buy quality, short the crap and go fishing. :)))
Good trading and a dose of common sense to us all ..
Bob
At 11:51 PM 10/14/00 +0200, you wrote:
>Bill,
>
>Your trading range looks too sloppy for me. Personally I would not call
that a trading range. But I agree, if it were, your point would be valid.
>
>So how about this one?
>
>Triangles are usually continuation patterns, as oposed to diamonds.
>In this chart we have a triangle (red lines), broken upside with downward
test at apex. BUT we never pass the top at B.
>Thus the pattern is a failure, and failures are most often followed by
violent moves in the other direction - in this case DOWN.
>
>OR
>
>If you find the triangle too sloppy, which one could argue - use the upper
blue line insted.
>We have an upside break of the blue line, with a test of the line and a
subsequent upmove - that triangle is now a rare reversal pattern.
>BUT the reversal fails at top B as well - so the direction "MUST" be down
and violent as usually is the case when it comes to failures.
>-----Oprindelig meddelelse-----
>Fra: t-bondtrader <t-bondtrader@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Til: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>Dato: 14. oktober 2000 22:59
>Emne: Re: [RT] Diamonds Were Forever
>
>
>>Stig, here is another view - and one which makes me want to lean towards the
>>break to the south, but it could then turn round and end the year on the top
>>line - again! The last reversal from the top did that in quick order, so it
>>may do it again. For me, it really does have to break the line and close
>>on the lows...
>>It will be interesting to see how it pans out.
>>
>>
>>Bill Eykyn
>>t-bondtrader@xxxxxxxxxxxx
>>www.t-bondtrader.com
>>"Learn to read the tape"
>>
>>
>>----- Original Message -----
>>From: "Stig O" <olausson@xxxxxxxxxx>
>>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>>Sent: Saturday, October 14, 2000 8:51 PM
>>Subject: [RT] Diamonds Were Forever
>>
>>
>>>
>>> Isn't this a beautiful diamond?
>>> A weekly chart of the Dow.
>>> Please note the parallell lines.
>>> This is what I call a Break Out!
>>> Or "Down" if you like......
>>> A retracement rally (steep and scary) and down we go!
>>> Or?
>>> Other suggestions?
>>>
>>>
>>> stig
>>>
>>>
>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
>>> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>
>
>
>
>To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
>realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
>Attachment Converted: "c:\internet\eudora\attach\triangle.gif"
>
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