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<DIV><FONT size=2>Seeing everybody on TV </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>- boosting AOL as "undervalued"</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>- "great combination with TWX"</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>- "deal will go through"</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>And therefore, post-merger, "stock will take
off".</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Well, what if it doesn't?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>What is the market anticipating - and thus making it difficult
for AOL to bust out of this sideways action?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Noting one way narrow Wall Street above, it would be prudent
to buy volatility. Esp since implieds are tracing out 52 week lows - not just on
AOL, but also on DIS, its chief competitor.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It is the unexpected that counts. For it is the unexpected
that pushes volatility back to mean.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Gitanshu</FONT></DIV>
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