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[RT] learn from my losing trade/sp500 nd outlook



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In a message dated 10/10/00 8:37:16 AM Eastern Daylight Time, Proffittak 
writes:

<< Hello
 
 the reason for this post is to share  a losing trade so that YOU   would not 
make the same mistake i did.
 about 10 days ago  i went long  1 sp500 at 1470
 and bought the 1460 Oct put at  27
 the reason for going long was  that the health index  (frequently  post by 
bob r)
 made a new hi
 and if you remember i posted at that time to the list that  i expect market 
to go to a new hi
 when price kept going  lower  i stuck to the position because in the past
 4 years  it took no longer then  5-10 buss days before  it materilized
 HOWEVER
 in bear markets  (which  we officially  in)  indicators  seem to leg by as 
long as
 1-2 month
 so  yesterday  i close the position with a 50 points loss
 and recover from the put  only  21points
 the lesson
 A: puts  should be bought  at 5 points from buying price for a long position 
trade
 B:  if  5 days goes by and  you are wrong get out
 c:  when  future drops more  then  30 points put  is not moving  up in price
 that good  
 d:  would have been better off  buying  2 puts of the 1450put
 
 as for mkt. outlook
 short term  we have a bullish div on MCcllulen osc
 and  vol. accumulation  is increasing
 top should be in spz00@xxxxxxx
 UNLESS we have today at least  3/1 up vol.  /down vol.
 ndz00  has a better  top  for this move@xxxx
 (if up vol.  /down vol.  3/1)
 happy trading
 Ben
  >>


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Return-path: <Proffittak@xxxxxxx>
From: Proffittak@xxxxxxx
Full-name: Proffittak
Message-ID: <a0.aac617c.2714677c@xxxxxxx>
Date: Tue, 10 Oct 2000 08:37:16 EDT
Subject: learn from  my losing trade/sp500 nd outlook
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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Hello

the reason for this post is to share  a losing trade so that YOU   would not 
make the same mistake i did.
about 10 days ago  i went long  1 sp500 at 1470
and bought the 1460 Oct put at  27
the reason for going long was  that the health index  (frequently  post by 
bob r)
made a new hi
and if you remember i posted at that time to the list that  i expect market 
to go to a new hi
when price kept going  lower  i stuck to the position because in the past
4 years  it took no longer then  5-10 buss days before  it materilized
HOWEVER
in bear markets  (which  we officially  in)  indicators  seem to leg by as 
long as
1-2 month
so  yesterday  i close the position with a 50 points loss
and recover from the put  only  21points
the lesson
A: puts  should be bought  at 5 points from buying price for a long position 
trade
B:  if  5 days goes by and  you are wrong get out
c:  when  future drops more  then  30 points put  is not moving  up in price
that good  
d:  would have been better off  buying  2 puts of the 1450put

as for mkt outlook
short term  we have a bullish div on MCcllulen osc
and  vol. accumulation  is increasing
top should be in spz00@xxxxxxx
UNLESS we have today at least  3/1 up vol.  /down vol.
ndz00  has a better  top  for this move@xxxx
(if up vol.  /down vol.  3/1)
happy trading
Ben