[RT] Re: MKT: S&P is this what happens today

["DonThompson" <detomps@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

  Clyde,

I dabble in statistical forecasting my self.

Here is what I have for today:

For tomorrow there is a 46% chance of a gap up open with a 66% chance of a
higher close, down from Tuesday's 75% chance of an up close. The up closers
have 30% of a Lower Lo and a 90% chance of a Higher Hi, while a down closer
has 0% Chance of a LL and an 80% chance of a higher high.  The 66% chance of
an up close is not bad odds for  a higher close, but still has to be
respected.

The down gap open is more likely by a whisker, yet it has about a 47% chance
of a higher close.  The up closer has a 75% chance of a LL and a 25% chance
of a HH and the down closer has 33% chance both for a LL and a HH.

The range is expected to be between 16.25 and 20 points.

My net expectation is also for a narrow range.

I then pull off ranges off of an average of up closers and down closers.

The blue is the expected range for a down closer. The orange is a range for
a typical up closer...

The numbers are published over at OEXTRADER under the RangeTrader section a
freebee.  Most times if the odds for an up close are about 75% or better an
up close will happen.  If its 25% or less the opposite. Many times price
will bounce off of these statistically derived ranges.

Don

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