[RT] Re: MKT: Big Picture Patterns

["BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Also the 5 day advancing declining volumes are speaking.

br

----- Original Message -----
From: "Gitanshu Buch" <OnWingsOfEagles@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, September 26, 2000 11:09 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: MKT: Big Picture Patterns


> Don't have NHNL data handy right now but here's the rest:
>
>
> >Do you see any glaring divergences from the DOW, the SPX, the NYA?
>
> Yes:
>
> a/ Decl issues generally falling as NYA/SPX fall while Advn issues rise or
> hold stable.
>
> b/ 9/20 to 9/21 Decl issues rose AND Advn issues fell so you would expect
> NYA to fall but NYA rose. However, Adv volume rose and Decl Vol fell which
> confirmed price.
>
> c/ 9/21 to 9/22 Decl vol rose and Advn volume fell AND Advn Issues fell
with
> Decl issues rising so you would expect price to fall but NYA rose a few
> cents. This was divergent.
>
>
> >Do you see a stealth bull getting ready to snort?
>
> No.
> a/ Volume/Price are just tracking each other after the 1 day divergence.
>
> b/ On 9/22 it took 518 million share increase in Adv volume to move NYA up
> by a measly 5 points (not even 1%). On 9/20 it only took a 346 million
share
> increase in Decl volume to drop the NYA by 8 points (over 1%).
>
> Today's not over yet.
>
> Conclusions?
>
> For the timeframe specified (9/18 to date)
>
> Don't know what to make of the above #s. One day the volume
> confirms/diverges, the other day the #issues confirms/diverges. Other days
> they all track in the same direction.
>
> Given that it took a lot more firepower to drive prices up (500+ million)
> than it took to drive prices down (<400 million), I'd say this is a weak
> market.
>
> Given the almost 1.5:1 effect of down volume's effect on price (index fell
> 1.xx%) over up volume on price (index rose 0.xx%), I'd say again that the
> market is weak.
>
> Glass half empty mode.
>
> I don't trade using any of these statistics, so expect me to have zilch
> insights but total neutrality.
>
> If you gave me these stats in a blind test again, this is what I'd likely
> see.
>
> Gitanshu
>
>
>

Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\qualcomm\eudora\attach\5ADVOL.gif"