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In addition to Bob$R's wondering about the Duffy pivot's impact on the OEX,
and Clyde's LZ for the OEX, I do hereby submit the work of another famous
trader, LBR's ANTI on SPX.
Textbook ANTI = tweaked stoch osc.
I tweaked it a bit further (a few yrs ago) and have been following it since.
The tweak is the reduction in the slowing periods from the recommended to 1;
all else remaining constant.
Specifically - ANTI is back to major oversold and the slower line, which
indicates "primary trend" is now curling up even though the short term trend
(thin line) is whipsawing.
Most of the time, the thick line flutters around between o'bot and o'sold.
Not this time, though.
The last few times this thick line oversold has happened, we've experienced
a 100+ SPX point multi-week rally.
08/02/00
02/28/00
08/05/99
06/02/99
08/05/98 * rally was MUCH < 100 points.
Beyond that I'll end up showing the # grey hair I have so fuggedaboutit.
Now... is this an exact science? No.
Can we make a lower low/spike? Yes.
Are we there yet? Yes.
So, position trader profits on the short side would likely be restricted, on
THIS index using THIS method at least.
The other thing that strikes me from the above list of dates = the cluster
around monthends/month beginnings.
We all know how Bob$R feels about that period.
Gitanshu
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