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>From an Internet list I subscribe to..... as I write, NDX is approaching
62% retracement of 4083. High today was 4089.
Some technical comments on the market: The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq may both
be forming rising wedges here, potentially bearish developments. The S&P's
has been forming in the 60-minute chart since bottoming under 1440; this
would appear to imply a rapid return to the 1440 level on a break to the
downside, which could come in the next day or two. Below that is the
important support of 1380, the lower boundary of our
head-and-shoulders/diamond pattern. A break of that lower boundary could
carry the S&P as low as 1150, so we want to hold that level. The Nasdaq's
rising wedge is potentially more troubling, as it appears on the daily and
weekly charts and begins at the index's 3042 bottom in May; a break of this
pattern to the downside would imply a rapid return to that level, and
potentially lower. As rising wedges occur frequently in bear markets, and we
have major topping patterns on the S&P and the Dow, the implications would
appear to be pretty ominous. Again, we will wait for the breaks for
confirmation. The indexes have moved higher in nice moves as of late, which
would appear on the surface to be a positive, but the patterns they are
moving in normally do not make for lasting advances. The Nasdaq appears to
be set up for a run to its 62% retracement level of 4337. A break below 4073
would negate the index's recent breakout, and a break below 4000 would
likely break the rising wedge. Recent support on the Nasdaq is in the
3820-3830 range, and key support is at 3725 and 3585. The ISDEX is
approaching its 50% retracement level of 845, and a break of 850 resistance
would likely carry the index to 880. A break below 790 would negate the
ISDEX's recent breakout. To the downside, 700 has proven strong support; a
break of that number could give the index room to 600.
-----Original Message-----
From: Terry Smith <tesla@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Monday, July 17, 2000 11:45 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: S&P500, Looking Ahead
>I follow anniversary dates. July 18, 1998 was a top and July 19, 1999 was a
>top. Is it possible to have a top on the 18,th one year then the 19th the
>next and this year a top on the 20th? 18,19,20??
>----- Original Message -----
>From: <Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx>
>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Sunday, July 16, 2000 8:23 AM
>Subject: [RT] S&P500, Looking Ahead
>
>
>> Hello RT'rs,...
>>
>> Following is excert from my End of Week Notes,..just
>> personal observations and forward looking analysis.
>> Would appreciate any thoughts or comments,...and have
>> a good week. Regards, JIM Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
>>
>> ****************************************
>> End of Week Notes Fri 07-14-00
>>
>> RISK IS HIGH,OPEN MINDED TO WAVE "B" HIGH 07-20, WAVE "C" LOW 09-19.
>>
>> SYMMETRY: For S&P500, from 03-24 high to 05-23 low was 42 mkt days. From
>> 05-23 low, project forward 42 mkt days is 07-20 as Bear Mkt Rally "B
Wave"
>> High. Significantly, 07-20 is Bradley (both M & 5) Models Key Date,
>> indicated as a HIGH. From high 07-20,...another 42 mkt days targets
09-19
>> LOW. And this is noteworthy as Thurs 09-21 is Parallax Long Term Weekly
>> Turn #4 of 6 for year 2000. So open minded to a "C" Wave decline into
>> 09-21. In my humble opinion,..near term risk is high.
>>
>> NEAR TERM QUESTIONABLE: Although no outright "Sells" yet,..several
>favorite
>> key indicators are close. Weekly CBOE Put/Call ratio 0.38 at "Sell
Alert"
>> (0.34 to 0.36 is outright Sell). TGI at 6.7 is overbought with weak Avg
>Vol
>> Factor 4.1 (below 5.0 is worrisome). And summer rally typical from
>seasonal
>> April - May low into July - Aug high,...again suggesting we are NOT at
>the
>> beginning of a major up leg.
>>
>> NASDAQ NEAR .618 RETRACEMENT RESISTANCE. First resistance 3900-4000 (was
>> area of greatest QQQ option open interest) now overcome, so next
>resistance
>> target is 0.618 retracement of the 03-10 to 05-24 decline is
approximately
>> 4300 -4400 level,..just above current 4244 close. Another factor
>suggesting
>> limited upside
>> from current levels.
>>
>> CURRENTLY our portfolio is 70% long International Growth (30% cash), and
I
>> will likely exit to 100% cash on Mon 07-17. Friendly to pursuit of
>overseas
>> follow through BUT only when setup is "compelling".
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
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