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Second Opinions....
VR DayTrader Online for 7/14
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MARKET COMMENTARY
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Improving internals on both the Big Board and Nasdaq plus a cooperating bond
market have led to a five day advance in the blue-chips and an explosive two
days on Nasdaq, driving the latter near the 4200 level. Enough stocks are
still depressed to support more of a 'bear bounce', and I'm not surprised at
all to see the Nasdaq near 4200 (I had speculated we might even see 4500).
However, we're getting a tad extended here and cyclically we're do for a
'change point' today through Monday (meaning a sell-off, since we've been
going up into the cycle). And, of course, my Annual Forecast Model (AFM)
still warns that this 'summer rally' will be met with second half sell-off,
possibly quite severe. As a result, my interest is strictly that of a hit
and run trader.
>From pinpoint-market-timing:
Our model has signaled that aggressive traders should sell short SPY stock
with a market order ("sell short at the market") tomorrow morning, Friday,
July 14, 2000 at the market's opening. The order should be placed with
your broker before the market opens. Maintain a mental-only protective
buy-stop at 160.75 on close only. Clients who are short the position
entered on June 6, at 146.625 and the second short position on July 11 at
147.46875, should hold those positions with a mental-only buy-stop at 160.75
on close only.
As discussed in our website, short sales are inherently more risky than long
positions. That is even more true in today's markets, which are suffering
more whipsaw swings than usual after the primary up-trend faltered in
mid-March. Before you decide on whether to sell short, you may benefit by
reviewing again our model's track record in the website, particularly
studying its record on short sales of SPY. The shorts have been less
profitable on average than the buy long positions. Of course, the main
reason is that during the long bull market, our short sales have been at
the start of the counter-trend down-swings, which don't last as long or move
as far as the upswings in a bull market. The chief reason that aggressive
traders may still wish to sell short is that in case a serious downward
correction occurs, like the one from July-October, 1998, short sales profit
very nicely. In that correction of -18% in the broad markets, our model's
track record gained 15% in 3 months by shorting the downswings as well as
buying the counter-trend upswings. During the same correction, a
buy-and-hold investor in SPY stock would have seen his holding decline by
approximately -18%. Most stocks suffered even worse declines, as you may
recall from our website's tabulation of the price declines in the 10 most
admired stocks in America. Seven of the 10 great companies' stocks plunged
even more than the SPY stock
-----Original Message-----
From: Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx <Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx>
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Thursday, July 13, 2000 10:08 AM
Subject: [RT] July / August Energy Point Dates,...from Jim Pilliod
>In response to Norman Winski's questioning of my work. From my notes here
>are Energy Point dates for July into August,...mostly derived using short
>term 3 week static cycle anlysis,...prepared as of 07-01. This is my
>work,...does not include reference to the work of others,...and is being
>posted and shared freely so that others may find something of interest,
or
>useful, etc. Just wondering if Norman would be so kind as to do the same.
>Good day to all.
>
>Regards, JIM Pilliod
>*************************
>
>July/August Energy Point Dates Dtd 07-01-00
>
>Wedn 07-05: 13 mkt days from
>06-15 high (was 13 mkt days from 05-26 Key Low), next is 07-21, then 08-09
>EACH VALID. Also Sun / Mercury conjunction 07-06.
>
>Fri 07-07: 13 mkt days from 06-19 high (was 13 mkt days from 05-31 Key
Low).
>07-07 is 90 cal days from 04-11 every 90 cal days back was key time frame.
>07-07 also shows as Nat Pulse date, and is Bradley "M" Model short term
LOW.
>
>Fri 07-14: Nat. Pulse on 07-13. Full Moon Sun 07-16. Lunar Eclipse date
>(prev was 01-20). 07-14 is 12 mkt days from 06-23 low,...and 07-14 is
also
>19 mkt days from 06-16, key count going back to 12-31-99.
>
>Wedn 07-19: 13 mkt days fr 06-29 low, 13 mkt days fr 06-12, 13 mkt days fr
>MAY LOW. (so 39 mkt days fr May LOW). 07-19 Fibo ratio date.
>
>Fri 07-21: Bradley Models (M & 5) 07-21 is high date for 2000 (per
note
>from a friend,..based on Mars conjunct N. Node 420 degrees Moon).
>Anniversary of 1999 high,...and Second anniversary of 1998 high. 07-21
>is 12 mkt days from 07-05.
>
>Thurs 07-27 is 45 mkt days fr 05-23 key LOW.
>
>Mon 07-31: New Moon.
>
>Wedn 08-09: 13 mkt days from 07-21 (was 12 mkt days from 07-05, was 13 mkt
>days from 06-15). Thurs 08-10 is 19 mkt days from 07-14, ...KEY Count off
>12-31-99 (07-14, 06-16, 05-19, 04-24, 02-25, 01-28, and 12-31-99). Watch
>this count going forward.... 09-07-00 is next ?
>
>Tues 08-15: Full Moon. 08-15 is 13 mkt days from 07-27 (was 45 mkt
>days from 05-23 Key Low.)
>
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