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Had a number of emails asking how I worked the counts and the time. I
was using a 5 minute chart, however the attached 10 minute chart shows
the counts. As bars are added to the chart, I am constantly working
retracement and expansion tools for several levels of counts in an
effort to provide confirmation of larger degree waves from the lower
degree waves. I had what looked like pretty good confirmation for w.3.3
(minor wave 3 within wave 3 of higher degree) so I was looking for an
entry point at the bottom of w.4.3. A w.4 is frequently 25-38% price
retracement of w.3 and a .618, 1.0, or 1.618 time retracement of w.3. At
the time I wrote the post, we had already reached just below the 25%
price retracement, had passed the .618 time retracement (first cyan
vertical line), and were nearing the 1.0 retracement (second cyan
vertical line) with a reasonably clear (but tight) 5 wave decline. It
was therefore reasonable to look for a bottom at the time and price.
Time and price projections are made to be contradicted by the market,
however it is when the projections all fit together that one can
confidently enter into a high probability trade with very little risk in
terms of stops.
I would highly recommend Robert Miner's book Dynamic Trading ($100 with
MBG at www.dynamictraders.com) to anyone interested in delving into
these techniques in detail.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, July 13, 2000 11:15 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: BONDS
> Generally, I believe bonds are currently in w4 of w3 larger degree.
I'm
> looking for a bottom to form within the next 20 minutes or so (around
> 1330 eastern) followed by w5 rally to around 9818 for the close or
> tomorrow's open. Tomorrow's news would be likely to provide a w4
decline
> back to 97-98, then another rally.
>
> Earl
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