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Jim,
We can find any ratio we want to satisfy whatever we think
is going on in the market ! ! !
What we really need to look at is WHAT HAS HAPPENED
IN THE PAST.
SwingMachine does exactly that.
One version is called the SwingTimer.
In this application ALL the upgoing swings (using a
TurningPoint detection which will provide a turning point
where you reference your post) since 1983 are tabulated
with percentage change and length of leg in bars.
These data are split into two groups based on length
of time in each leg and then each group is averaged.
The results AVERAGE TIME IN FIRST GROUP TO
AVERAGE TIME IN SECOND GROUP are plotted
as the sides of a rectangle. The AVERAGE PERCENT
OF PRICE CHANGE is also calculated and these values
plotted as the top and bottom of the rectangle.
This gives us an excellent idea of where and how
dispersed have been historical swings.
Clyde
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Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
SYTECH Corporation email: <clydelee@xxxxxxx>
7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Work: (713) 783-9540
Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
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To subscribe / unsubscribe from SwingMachine list
http://www.egroups.com/list/swingmachine/
After joining list the freeware SwingMachine program
(DOS Version) is available in the VAULT at:
http://www.egroups.com/list/swingmachine/
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----- Original Message -----
From: <Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, July 11, 2000 07:09
Subject: [RT] 07-11 is .618 Time Ratio Projection Date off the May Low
> Hello everyone,...
>
> For anyone interested in fibonacci number time ratio projections,...
> note that 07-11 is interesting:
>
> >From 03-10 HIGH to 05-24 LOW (centered btwn 05-23 NASDAQ low, and
05-25
> S&P500 low) was 52 mkt days.
>
> 52 mkt days x 0.618 = 32 mkt days,..added to
> 05-24,..equals today 07-11 as a .618 time ratio date.
>
> What does this mean,..simply that we are in the "time" area where an
end
> of the upmove off the May low would be logical. Doesn't mean it
should,
> or will, happen,..just a measuring tool,..(much like how stocks often
> find support at the 50% retracement level of a decline,.etc.) that
serves
> as a guide.
>
> HOWEVER,...IMHO,..THE VALUE OF A TOOL SUCH AS THIS INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY
> WHEN IT IS COMBINED WITH OTHER INDICATORS. For instance,..the fact
that the
> lowrisk.com weekly survey (posted last evening)
> came in at all time record high number of Bulls,...increases in my
mind the
> chance that this 07-11 time frame may in fact mark a turn of
significance.
>
> Also note other posts on RT forum recently referring to the importance
of
> the 07-13 and 14 dates as likely timeframe for a turning point. My
personal
> feeling (dsiclaimer: which is likely wrong) is that from here this
should not
> be a quiet week,..that within the next 1-3 days,..we'll see a turn of
> significance.
> So this is one tool in the box,..among many. What I look for is a
> preponderence of evidence so to speak...then I pay attention.
>
> Any thoughts or comments verymuch appreciated.
>
> Regards, JIM Pilliod
>
>
>
>
>
>
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