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> I have been on this list for quite a while now and have noticed that
> the only traders that post their trading results are those that are
> trading mechanical systems. Could it be that discretionary non-
> mechanical trading is a losing game?
It could be that discretionary non-mechanical trading
- is indeed a losing game for most of us
- is too time-consuming to bother with mundane things keeping score...
- is full of boom-bust blow-hot, blow-cold types of cycles, which can
stretch out for years/months
- is populated by trader types that have nothing consistent to offer since
they adapt to the changing market instead of sticking to the rigors of a
locked in machine
- is better than most mechanical systems, but who cares, as long as both
make money to their constituents...
- is no better or worse, since most non-discretionary systems are based on
discretionary rules of analysis that could lead the investor astray if its
assumptions didn't pan out for some reason
- still depends on the investor, to stay with it through the long periods
needed to really justify greatness.
- is no better than indexing in the long run.
An example of a mechanical system that isn't working so well this year after
a few years of admirable results can be found here:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/articles/invest/models/yeartrader2000.asp
As they say, the year ain't over until the last pitch is pitched.
Regards
Gitanshu
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