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Not sure if the outsized commercial short position means anything.
One, Commercial spoo shorts have been at lifetime highs since about 20% ago.
In a world where decimal points makes or breaks careers, 20% wallop is the
end of the world.
Two, Put call ratios have been offsettingly call-biased (lots of call
buying) throughout this period.
If I were an institution, I would do that to protect myself while the real
gains accrued in my dedicated long stock positions.
Wouldn't you? Short futures, long calls for cheap. End of story. Let the
real games begin behind the smokescreen.
Finally... if a short covering rally is tripped on these guys, they are
likely to give up their positions and move to cash instead of covering -
ahead of the much vaunted Aug-Sep seasonality and be ready to reload and
charge ahead of Oct 31 report card time.
Gitanshu
>Commitment of Traders shows institutions are short 41,000+ SPooz.
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