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As expected, the NYSE model continued to deteriorate until it went sell
Wednesday night ... spring reversal held on SP and today's action has
broken the handle of the C&H pattern. NASDAQ divergence has worsened so
I expect it will follow soon ... today's price range (higher high +
lower low + close below yesterday's close + close below today's open)
completes a bearish outside reversal day which fully reverses
yesterday's bullish outside day. I think it's safe to assume that the
top is in for now across the major indexes although I expect that
declines here will be modest.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, June 21, 2000 6:46 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: Market Outlook
> A couple of other comments from under my trading hat ... hourly SP
(Sep)
> executed a Wyckoff spring reversal (see heavy blue line on attached)
up
> through the previous PH and then reversed sharply back through it. The
> hourly reversal was confirmed by the failure swing of the next to last
> bar on the chart ... in fact the high of that 60 minute bar put on a
> very shortable spring reversal on the 5 minute chart. A break below
1481
> will confirm the failure and a break above the spring reversal line
will
> mark the end of the spring reversal. With major trend up, I will not
> carry short positions overnight. I am watching for a similar setup on
> the ND.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, June 21, 2000 6:33 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Market Outlook
>
>
> > The NYSE breadth models have continued to expand the bearish
> divergence.
> > Noticeable bearish divergence has crept into the NASDAQ breadth
models
> > even as new highs have been made in this rally. Looks to me like we
> are
> > much closer to a decline. Given the overall condition of the models,
I
> > would expect any decline to be relatively modest while improving the
> > odds for a good rally later this year.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Sunday, June 18, 2000 6:34 AM
> > Subject: [RT] Re: Market Outlook
> >
> >
> > > Equities: NASDAQ breadth models show strong bullish divergence to
> > price,
> > > however the wave structure suggests another decline is required to
> > > resolve a bottom - watch for possible H&S bottom to complete w.5
> > > (attached) - 3200-3400 range includes two possible left shoulders.
> > NYSE
> > > daily breadth models are rolling over showing bearish divergence
> while
> > > weekly models still in good shape - major indexes have expended
> energy
> > > without breaking out - looking for S&P pullback to 1460 area
(Sep),
> > 1442
> > > area (cash). This appears to suggest that the trading range market
> > will
> > > continue for a bit however the intermediate term appears to be
> > preparing
> > > for a major bullish move.
> > >
> > > Debt: TBill rates have dropped by only .25, not enough to fuel a
> major
> > > rally. Fed Funds Jun-Dec futures spread (attached) appears to be
> > > completing a 5th wave decline with little more than a quarter
point
> > Fed
> > > Funds increase priced into the market through year-end - rebound
to
> > half
> > > point increase appears likely which will put pressure on equities
> and
> > > short end of yield curve. Like equities, bonds (10's and 30's)
have
> > > labored hard to breakout above recent highs - looking tired with
not
> > > much more upside. Another market likely to remain in a trading
range
> > > 96-99 for the 30.
> > >
> > > Currency: US$ decline has been long and steep without a
significant
> > > retracement - some support at 105 which could/should give a bounce
> > here,
> > > better support at 102. Likely to remain in corrective range
between
> > > 102-112 for some months. Near-term failure of 102 would suggest
> longer
> > > term decline is in the cards. Eventual dollar bottom should
complete
> > > at/above 96 in Sep-Oct time frame. This is likely to provide room
> for
> > > non-US currencies to trend somewhat higher subject to pressure
from
> > > higher US rates fears.
> > >
> > > Earl
> >
>
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