[RT] Re: Three Week Cycle Count, Near Term Energy Point Dates

[Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx]

In a message dated 6/21/00 5:56:45 AM Pacific Daylight Time, 
eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx writes:

<< I don't think we got anything tradable
 out of the time cluster for w/o 12Jun except more indigestion from
 sideways market. We did get a key PL on 13Jun, however there has been
 (so far) about a 3% move in SP off the PL - nothing worthy of notice. >>


Hello Earl,...

Thanks for this post.  I do want to disagree with you to a degree though 
regarding the  significance of the cluster at June 12 timeframe.  My feeling 
is that in retrospect, the June 12th date will mark a low of 
importance,...from which to measure,..etc. 

Consider  these three things:

1.  Bradley "M" Model (Shorter Term) indicates 06-12 as a HIGH pivot (note 
inversions on Bradley are common,..it is the date that matters),...to be 
followed by a dip into 07-05.  Well,...the 06-12 was clearly NOT a high,..and 
in fact was a LOW.  So likely in my mind that an inversion exists on short 
term Bradley model,...and the move from 06-12 pivot  is UP into 07-05.  This 
fits with other methods as well.

2.  The 06-12 fits with 3 week (13 market day) count,...note 06-12 was 13 mkt 
days from 05-23 (KEY LOW,...NASDAQ 3164.55, S&P500 1373.86),...which in turn 
was 13 mkt day count,..short term low on New Moon date of 05-04.  No big 
deal,...just confirms that until proven otherwise,..this 3 week cycle count 
is likely to continue going forward.  And going forward 13 mkt days from 
06-12,..indicates 06-29 which is indicated by Nat. Pulse,...Fibonacci  and 
also 06-30 is New Moon.  

3.  Most importantly,..on the daily S&P500 there exists a potential "flag" 
formation, ...with the move up off the 05-23 low into early June,...then the 
flag,...which lasted into 06-12 low.  Basically at the "center of the "flag" 
there is a "focal point"...a term I learned years ago from friend Jim Tillman 
of Cycletrend.  It is from this focal point that a mirror image type 
resolution (both time and price-wise) might be expected, ..with regard to 
resolution of the "flag" pattern.  Bottomline,..if this is a valid "flag" 
continuation pattern,..then 1540 cash S&P500 would be my rough 
target,..consistent with old highs...and the timeframe for completion 
measured from the focal point would be late June,...28 to 30th timeframe as 
suggested by  the next 13 day pivot off the June 12 date discussed above.  
Again...something else pointing in a similar direction...upside resolution 
likely..etc. 

Just a couple things coming together to suggest the low of 06-12 may be more 
significant than it appears at least so far.  Again...Earl, appreciate the 
sharing of ideas...have a great day.  Again...don't write off the 
significance of your cluster for the June 12th timeframe. 

Any comments or thoughts appreciated.  

Regards, JIM Pilliod