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I figure it's going back to it's "flatline" mode for several more weeks -
i.e. not too serious of a decline. It seems to be acting similar to August
1996 - in that case it flatlined for about 5 -6 weeks. There were a couple
false starts before it really broke out (looking at the Nasdaq Comp).
fwiw,
Phil
----- Original Message -----
From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, June 21, 2000 5:33 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: Market Outlook
> The NYSE breadth models have continued to expand the bearish divergence.
> Noticeable bearish divergence has crept into the NASDAQ breadth models
> even as new highs have been made in this rally. Looks to me like we are
> much closer to a decline. Given the overall condition of the models, I
> would expect any decline to be relatively modest while improving the
> odds for a good rally later this year.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, June 18, 2000 6:34 AM
> Subject: [RT] Re: Market Outlook
>
>
> > Equities: NASDAQ breadth models show strong bullish divergence to
> price,
> > however the wave structure suggests another decline is required to
> > resolve a bottom - watch for possible H&S bottom to complete w.5
> > (attached) - 3200-3400 range includes two possible left shoulders.
> NYSE
> > daily breadth models are rolling over showing bearish divergence while
> > weekly models still in good shape - major indexes have expended energy
> > without breaking out - looking for S&P pullback to 1460 area (Sep),
> 1442
> > area (cash). This appears to suggest that the trading range market
> will
> > continue for a bit however the intermediate term appears to be
> preparing
> > for a major bullish move.
> >
> > Debt: TBill rates have dropped by only .25, not enough to fuel a major
> > rally. Fed Funds Jun-Dec futures spread (attached) appears to be
> > completing a 5th wave decline with little more than a quarter point
> Fed
> > Funds increase priced into the market through year-end - rebound to
> half
> > point increase appears likely which will put pressure on equities and
> > short end of yield curve. Like equities, bonds (10's and 30's) have
> > labored hard to breakout above recent highs - looking tired with not
> > much more upside. Another market likely to remain in a trading range
> > 96-99 for the 30.
> >
> > Currency: US$ decline has been long and steep without a significant
> > retracement - some support at 105 which could/should give a bounce
> here,
> > better support at 102. Likely to remain in corrective range between
> > 102-112 for some months. Near-term failure of 102 would suggest longer
> > term decline is in the cards. Eventual dollar bottom should complete
> > at/above 96 in Sep-Oct time frame. This is likely to provide room for
> > non-US currencies to trend somewhat higher subject to pressure from
> > higher US rates fears.
> >
> > Earl
>
>
>
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