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<DIV>I have no interest in engaging in a pissing contest over this - we are
all entitled to post our market opinions some of which will turn out
to be right and some wrong. Although I don't employ it in my trading, I
have no issue what-so-ever with the use of astrology in trading and I've found
some of Bob's posts with astrological charts most interesting. From my
perspective, the valuable and educational insights are provided by
commentary which includes both conclusion and some of the thinking which went
into arriving at the conclusion - we can then judge what might be right or wrong
and why. NW's post was a flat out prediction with no information regarding
derivation (although we know NW sells an astro forecasting service) nor was
there any information regarding how the information might be used to execute a
real live trade. Thus the reader is left with absolutely nothing of substance
which he/she can be apply to improving their trading, analysis or decision
making in the future. Further, the prediction appeared to be ambiguous enough
(in a market which snacks on 8 point moves) that the odds were small of being
wrong. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>From my perspective as a contributor of some substance (right and wrong) to
this list, I classified NW's post as nothing more than trolling for fish,
however I thought I'd give him an opportunity to correct that impression.
Unfortunately, I discarded the original post as I prefer to prepare my own
trading plan. However in my query I wrote::</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><EM>"Did I miss something here? My apologies but I don't seem to have the
original post to insure I get things right ... I thought I read 3 possible
turning point times in approximate 15 minute increments with the highest
probability at 1046 EST followed by comment that an 8 point move (not specified
as up or down) would take place at the turning point or immediately before. I
may be dense, but I can't for the life of me figure out how one could trade that
kind of information even though I can see how one would readily evaluate in
retrospect that such a move occurred. Perhaps you would be kind enough to
re-post the original quote and tell us what kinds of things we would look for in
order to actually enter a trade at the correct time and in the correct
direction? I'm really not looking for a hand-out of 8 points, but I am very
interested in learning how one might trade such turning points."</EM></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>NW did not choose to correct me (or re-post the predictions), but rather
admonished me to watch the tape at the anointed times.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Let's examine this from the perspective of putting down real money on a
real trade.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>case #1) assume that the move will commence immediately at the
anointed times. Since we have no way of knowing at which time the move will
begin, no indication of direction, and no indication of time frame
(5/10/15/30/60 minute bars), we must either a) enter a long and short trade
at each of the times and wait to see which direction builds momentum and scratch
the opposing trade or scratch both if no momentum or b) simultaneously watch
several intraday time frames for some sign of trend exhaustion terminating at
the designated times and enter in the opposing direction while hoping that we
have chosen the right time frame in which to trade.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>case #2) assume that the move will terminate immediately before the
anointed times. Since we have no information concerning time frame or duration,
we need to check oscillator cycles in numerous time frames in order to guess
which cycles in which time frames might have a move terminating at the anointed
times.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>If we had some clues regarding time frame, case #1-b would probably be the
most workable (if it were not for case #2). Even in the best case we have 3
times at which to trade and SP will easily fake one out at 2 of the 3 times,
unless of course one is lucky enough to grab the 8 points at the first. Frankly,
I view trading as a business of probabilities and I don't think that the
probabilities favor executing a winning trade here.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Finally, I will add something which may be of value to someone. One useful
trading technique is to draw lines at the high and low of the first hour of
trading and then trade in the direction in which trading breaks out of the first
hour's range which, in the case of SP runs from 930-10-30 (eastern). I have
never found this technique to be one which can be traded without other
information (such as dominant trend and price pattern) but the indicated 1045
time frame does occur in close proximity to the period in which we would look
for first hour breakout.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Earl<BR></DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message -----
<DIV>From: "ted stampeen" <<A
href="mailto:tedco@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>tedco@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>></DIV>
<DIV>To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>></DIV>
<DIV>Sent: Monday, June 19, 2000 1:15 AM</DIV>
<DIV>Subject: [RT] Re: Market Outlook,...A Reply to NW</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>> if you think about it a little more objectively, Norm did
give substance<BR>> in coming on and saying there will be some moves at a
certain time,<BR>> so if your trading these markets, one can write these down
and watch<BR>> and see what comes of it.. and if they come to pass, well,,
maybe he<BR>> would post some more and more, then , you could see for
yourself if his way<BR>> is better than yours,,and if its a lot better,, you
would be wiser and<BR>> richer to become a student..<BR>> <BR>> there
are others on the list who , when asked about a certain indicator,<BR>> etc,
say flat out that its proprietary, but because they are not selling a<BR>>
course, people just accept it , and don't accuse them of holding out
etc.<BR>> <BR>> <BR>> Though by now, we could assume that it
would have something to do<BR>> with astrology, seeing as that's Norm thing.
I'm sure he wouldn't mind<BR>> confirming this..<BR>> <BR>> think of it
this way,, if everyone here that does have a service , or<BR>> course, came
on here (tastefully), and said "this is what were doing,"<BR>> etc, based on
their methology, we could all watch and see who is<BR>> right etc,, then if
we notice that someone is actually getting rich , and<BR>> were not, well we
now have a new place to go and learn , and maybe get rich<BR>> ourselves.. to
me THIS IS SUBSTANCE.<BR>> <BR>> <BR>> once again , my 2 cents,<BR>>
goodtrading / Ted<BR>> <BR>> <BR>> <BR>> <BR>> <BR>>
<BR>> > In a message dated 6/18/00 9:45:48 AM Pacific Daylight
Time,<BR>> > <A
href="mailto:nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>
writes:<BR>> ><BR>> > NW: I didn't say around
"11:30" AM EST. I said 10:46 AM EDT. You ask<BR>> me<BR>> > to
post my market information and then try to berate me for doing it.
To<BR>> > quote that great modern philosphoper Jerry Seinfeld,
"What's the deal?"<BR>> ><BR>> > JP: Norman,...you're missing
the point,....and chosing to make a big deal<BR>> > over a minor point
(nothing). Getting back to the issue,..has to do with<BR>> > your
"Market Comment" post of 06-17 being nothing more than an<BR>> >
advertisement,...your version of "bait" for new students..etc. You
chose<BR>> NOT<BR>> > to repsond to the following:<BR>> ><BR>>
> (Just a guess,...but when Earl said he'd "be interested in seeing
the<BR>> > thoughts of others on the list" I just assumed he meant
with regard to<BR>> > MARKET OUTLOOK.<BR>> > Perhaps I am
mistaken,..but your post looks alot like the text of an<BR>> > infomercial
or advertisement, seeing as how only your "students" are<BR>>
privy<BR>> > to your insights,....etc.<BR>> > Just wondering if you
have a MARKET OTLOOK you'd care to share with others<BR>> on<BR>> > the
RT list. If so that'd be great,..and I'd likely stop these
annoying<BR>> > replies to your "posts".)<BR>> ><BR>> >
NW: At this rate, it will be another four months or more before I
post<BR>> > anything similar.<BR>> ><BR>> > JP: Give me
a break Norman,..is this supposed to make me grovel and beg<BR>> you<BR>>
> to change your mind?<BR>> ><BR>> > NW: Things must be
pretty tough for you to have to tear down someone's<BR>> > market
projections, in order for you to feel better, and before it has<BR>>
even<BR>> > had a fair trial in the market.<BR>> ><BR>> >
JP: Norman,...you're wrong again. In real time trading I am up 62.7%
on<BR>> > trading account and 44.25% YTD on entire portfolio (including
mutual<BR>> > funds..etc) ,...vs. the NASDAQ which is down -5.13% or the
S&P500 down<BR>> > -0.33%. How about you,...what are your
YTD real time ACTUALLY ACHIUEVED<BR>> > trading returns?<BR>> > So
things are not "pretty tough" for me,..nor am I tearing down your<BR>>
precious<BR>> > "Market Projection".<BR>> ><BR>> >
NW: How about after I am wrong on Monday, you can have a real
picnic<BR>> > posting how stupid I am?<BR>> ><BR>> > JP:
Norman,..rest assured that I and the thousand or so others who are<BR>> >
interested in your "projection" will be anxiously watching the<BR>> >
(NASDAQ?,...S&P500,.... NYSE?,....or the Dow?....you never actually
said)<BR>> at<BR>> > the all important 10:45 am EST pivot.<BR>>
><BR>> > NW: On the other hand, if the times I posted are
anywhere near right,<BR>> > perhaps you<BR>> > will consider
getting off my case permanently? This totally unfair<BR>>
behavior<BR>> > is a good incentive for me not to post anything.<BR>>
><BR>> > JP: Again,..it's not the intraday forecast,...it's the
advertisement<BR>> > "format" of your post above that I reponded to
....nothing of substance<BR>> > regarding "Market Forecast"....and this is
nothing personal,..so don't<BR>> make<BR>> > it that way.<BR>>
><BR>> > NW: I am trying to give away some money and you
are spoiling the party.<BR>> Why<BR>> > ruin it for the rest of the
list? Check out the eggs before you kill the<BR>> > goose.<BR>>
><BR>> > JP: Could this be the same Norman who on 01-22-00 posted
"All of Life is<BR>> ONe<BR>> > Big Advertisement" (I have a copy if
anyone wants to read it)....NW: "<BR>> Wake<BR>> > up people. All
of life is one big advertisement. No one does anything for<BR>> > free
unless they think they can somehow benefit."<BR>> ><BR>> > JP:
What happened Norman,..did you suddenly get religion and decide to<BR>> >
loosen up and really share your ideas so that others could learn and<BR>>
benefit?<BR>> > LOL... Give me a break,....Scheeesch.<BR>>
><BR>> > Jim Pilliod <A
href="mailto:jpilleafe@xxxxxxx";>jpilleafe@xxxxxxx</A><BR>> ><BR>>
><BR>> ><BR>> ><BR>> <BR>> <BR>> <BR>> </BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Jun 19 07:56:13 2000
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From: "Phil Lane" <patterntrader@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: "<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>"
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
References: <aa.6882754.267cd3fd@xxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Re: Cramer,....Skeptical of NASDAQ,...Interesting Article
Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2000 06:28:47 -0700
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Status:
Went out Sunday morning to buy an IBD - the usual sources were sold out! I
figure this indicates an unusual amount of angst out there -
anyway I finally got a copy - last week the bearish sentiment backed off
just slightly - now 34% was about 36% - bullish swentiment nudged up a
couple percent to 49% - a little high but as Wm. O'Neil told me once
(annoyed) when I expressed my doubts about the market, "there's too much
bearish sentiment"
rgds phil
p.s. If you ever see him do one of those stock market presentations be sure
not to ask a dumb question!
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