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Here's a better looking GIF showing the daily NASDAQ and a/d volume
model.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, June 18, 2000 6:34 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: Market Outlook
> Equities: NASDAQ breadth models show strong bullish divergence to
price,
> however the wave structure suggests another decline is required to
> resolve a bottom - watch for possible H&S bottom to complete w.5
> (attached) - 3200-3400 range includes two possible left shoulders.
NYSE
> daily breadth models are rolling over showing bearish divergence while
> weekly models still in good shape - major indexes have expended energy
> without breaking out - looking for S&P pullback to 1460 area (Sep),
1442
> area (cash). This appears to suggest that the trading range market
will
> continue for a bit however the intermediate term appears to be
preparing
> for a major bullish move.
>
> Debt: TBill rates have dropped by only .25, not enough to fuel a major
> rally. Fed Funds Jun-Dec futures spread (attached) appears to be
> completing a 5th wave decline with little more than a quarter point
Fed
> Funds increase priced into the market through year-end - rebound to
half
> point increase appears likely which will put pressure on equities and
> short end of yield curve. Like equities, bonds (10's and 30's) have
> labored hard to breakout above recent highs - looking tired with not
> much more upside. Another market likely to remain in a trading range
> 96-99 for the 30.
>
> Currency: US$ decline has been long and steep without a significant
> retracement - some support at 105 which could/should give a bounce
here,
> better support at 102. Likely to remain in corrective range between
> 102-112 for some months. Near-term failure of 102 would suggest longer
> term decline is in the cards. Eventual dollar bottom should complete
> at/above 96 in Sep-Oct time frame. This is likely to provide room for
> non-US currencies to trend somewhat higher subject to pressure from
> higher US rates fears.
>
> Earl
Attachment Converted: "f:\eudora\attach\NASDAQ13.gif"
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