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In a message dated 6/17/00 9:07:09 AM Pacific Daylight Time,
nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
<< This past week, I
had some students here who were interested in the intra-day picture. We were
amazed at how accurate the intra-day aspects were, averaging forecasting
highs
and lows within 5-10 minutes. Fibonacci did a great job of
projecting price targets. >>
Hello Norman,...
Just a guess,...but when Earl said he'd "be interested in seeing the thoughts
of others on the list" I just assumed he meant with regard to MARKET
OUTLOOK.
Perhaps I am mistaken,..but your post looks alot like the text of an
infomercial or advertisement, seeing as how only your "students" are privy
to your insights,....etc.
Just wondering if you have a MARKET OTLOOK you'd care to share with others on
the RT list. If so that'd be great,..and I'd likely stop these annoying
replies to your "posts".
And before you say that you haven't seen my thoughts on the market,..here
they are. Excerpts from End of Week Notes dated Friday 06-16:
"Referring to last week notes,...I mentioned (questioned) the possibility of
a "turn lower then into Fri 06-19, which is a Full Moon,...Option Expiry, as
well as a 19 mkt day count: 12-31-99, 01-28-00, 02-25, 04-24, 05-19, and now
06-16. Also note 06-15 is a 13 mkt day count off 05-26 low. Friend Pete B.
has 06-15 and 06-16 as an energy point (likely pivot)."
A 06-16 note from a smart friend logically points to strength at expiration
time to be the result of a predominance of put buying in the week or two
prior to expiration. Only logical. But the last week or two prior to 06-16
triple expiration saw heavy call buying,.."overt optimism", so it is not
surprising that Fri 06-16 expiration saw a stiff sell off. The market did
what it had to to fool the majority.
In my humble opinion, the S&P500 "flag" pattern targets 1540 target by early
July (07-06?). Note early June 1370 (re-test of late May lows) then move up
into "flag" (June 02 to 12),...with 0613 move up to start of upside breakout.
If so, 1480 less 1370 = 110 pts +1440 = 1540 old high for S&P500.
But upside may be "labored" as S&P500 and NASDAQ are just below key
resistance levels (3880 and 1500),...and 3 week, 13 mkt day cycle likely
bottomed 06-12 was 13 mkt days from 05-23 Key Low, and going forward 13 mkt
days from 06-12 is 06-29, likely s.t. low.
Positives include: weekly sentiment surveys decent,...Consensus 31%
bulls,..down from 37% last week plenty of room to increase before
"over-believed". CBOE Weekly P/C ratio 0.41 (unchanged from last
week),...still comfortably above "Sell" threshold of 0.36. Barron's (06-19
p. F4) reports whopping $8.5 Bill inflows to equity funds per AMG for week as
of 06-14. NYSE Member Net Buying +12,754 (for w.e. 06-02) is positive for the
8th week in a row (mentioned in 06-02 E.O.W. Notes), VERY constructive for an
Interm-Longer term advance. And NYSE Total Shorting as a percent of Total
Volume at a "healthy" at 12.2% (again, for w.e. 06-02) above "normal" range
of 10-11%."
*********************************
That's it,...any thoughts or comments very much welcome and appreciated.
A good week ahead to all. Regards, JIM Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
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