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As the was ending and I surveyed my trading in the currencies, spoo, and
bonds, I realized that the markets just weren't doing what the price
patterns suggested the markets were going to do. When trading, I have no
particular bias long or short, I just try to be where the price patterns
say the market wants to go, but the markets just don't seem to follow
through. Bonds have been profitable for day trading up and down the 5
minute chart but that's about it. Based on private emails I've received,
I'm not the only position trader who has been seeing good setups go
nowhere or break down for the past couple of weeks.
Bottom line is that I find myself out of tune with the market even as I
do my best to follow its message. As Friday came to a close, it was time
to get flat and take a deeper look at the message which the market is
trying to convey. I may just be out of synch with the market or we may
be seeing some very important fundamental shifts in market
relationships. Among the points I will be reviewing this weekend:
a) the US$ has declined further and faster than it "should"
b) the S&P and NYSE indexes built an extremely bullish multi-month price
chart but seems unable to follow-through - may signal danger ahead
c) with the exception of energy and a few others, many commodities have
failed to sustain rallies in the face of booming world economies
I will post a follow-up when I finish my work, however I'd be interested
in seeing the thoughts of others on the list.
Earl
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