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Bob Brinker (the nationally syndicated radio investment advisor and
newsletter writer) believes that we have transitioned from a secular bull
that started in 1982 and are now entering a secular bear. Now that is an
interesting thought!
I was an active equity and mutual fund investor since the 60's and when
August 1982 brought the bottom of the stock market a lot of investors
thought it was followed by another bear market (sucker) rally. It just had
too much volume behind it for me and I jumped in with all I had. There was
a lot of fear in the markets and many I talked to were more interested in
safe places to park their money. An extremely wealthy acquaintance thought
I was crazy to jump back into equities because he was of the opinion that
since the banks were going to fail and we were in for more bad times, he was
looking to convert his wealth into real estate and precious metals and other
"defensive" holdings. My point here is that since secular bull and bear
markets are of a long period that when there is a transition from bull to
bear or from bear to bull it is difficult for investors to mentally make
that transition.
Marlowe
----- Original Message -----
From: Steven W. Poser <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <patterntrader@xxxxxxxxxx>; <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, June 16, 2000 11:06 AM
Subject: RE: [RT] accidently listened to cnbc
> This is Ralph Acampora's terminology, or at least I know how he uses it (I
> do not know if he invented it.). Since I have had the pleasure of teaching
a
> technical analysis seminar with him, and have heard him speak many times,
I
> can tell you what HE means by it:
>
> Cyclical bull market - Relatively shorter term (several years) long.
> Typically relating to a business cycle.
>
> Secular bull market - What we have been in since 1982. Long term change in
> the valuation of equities.
>
> He termed the 1998 drop as a cyclical bear within a secular bull.
>
> Steve Poser
>
> ---
> Steven W. Poser, President
> Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
> http://www.poserglobal.com
> swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Tel: 201-995-0845
> Fax: 201-995-0846
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
> Behalf Of Phil Lane
> Sent: Friday, June 16, 2000 12:01 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [RT] accidently listened to cnbc
>
>
> and now i have some nagging questions:
> What the hell is a "secular" bull market versus the regular kind? Same
> question for a "cyclical" bull market.
>
> in all seriousness,
> Phil
>
>
>
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