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Big players are likely to be hedged while the specs are more likely to
be long premium. I haven't looked at the expiring OI but I I'd bet that
the heavy call OI is 1500 and above and the heavy put OI is 1400 and
under and they'll close it so they expire worthless.
The commercials were massively net short in the latest COT report (due
to be updated Friday) but the market has hung in well. If you looked at
the futures this afternoon you'd have thought the world was ending but
the cash was fine. Interesting daily SP chart at
www.chartingyourfutures.com which highlights the last four expirations
with a vertical green line ... price action held sideways into the
expiration then burst upwards. No guarantees but the price pattern is
bullish and the breadth models have held up well so I suspect odds are
high that we'll repeat.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Dennis Holverstott" <dennis@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, June 15, 2000 10:43 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: Don't like where the spoo is going
> Aren't the big players more likely to be short puts and calls while
the
> small specs are more likely to be long?
>
> > Assuming that the big players can control it, they'll shoot to
minimize
> > the cost of in the money puts and calls so if option players are
long
> > calls they will tend to hold the price back until expiration, then
> > rally. Easier to do in some of the other commodities where you can
look
> > at option OI and see where the commercials will try to close on
options
> > expiration day.
>
> --
> Dennis
>
>
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