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Just to finish out this SP trade ... Wednesday's positive action made it
worth rolling from June into Sep and Thursday's range was contained
within the range of the bull flag although the tone was negative ... now
projecting to 1552 basis Sep using 62% of bull flag pole from bottom of
flag retracement. Have small rally this morning off Friday's lows on
Globex. Risk on bad PPI appears to range between 1474 (bottom of 01June
gap) and 1453 (50% retracement) . With risk/reward at 59 up vs 41 down
we did not have the required 2:1 and exited the position ... am now flat
with a small profit on the trade.
Bonds appear to be expecting a benign PPI .. Thursday hourly closed
above a large bullish symmetrical triangle for a buy signal ... did not
take the trade ... will await possible entry points after release of
PPI.
There are times when position traders do well to be flat and this looks
like one of them to me ... 3-4 days of tight ranges in both bonds and
spoo suggest that the move out will be explosive.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, June 07, 2000 12:43 PM
Subject: [RT] Re: S&P chart
> Thought this 30 minute June SP might be of interest to the list
because
> it illustrates a number of trading aids. The wide magenta line marks
the
> 25% retracement level which makes the bull flag pattern Dennis pointed
> out extremely bullish. Just under the magenta line is a cyan line
which
> marks the bottom of a gap - very critical support. The yellow lines
show
> the range of the first hour of trading - a breakout from the first
hour
> often sets the trend for the day. Just above the magenta line are a
pair
> of cyan lines beginning on Monday delineating Monday's inside day and
> beginning on Tuesday a single cyan line delineating Tuesday's high.
> Also, we have a double bottom (1457.50) in the 30 minute. Finally, On
> Balance Volume (based on ticks not actual volume because this is a
> future) shows consistent accumulation all day today. Altogether a very
> bullish picture. We are long the initial position with stop under gap
> support and looking to add more. If the 1489 (June) high is taken out,
> the 62% bull flag projection runs to 1528.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, June 07, 2000 7:51 AM
> Subject: [RT] Re: S&P chart
>
>
> > Rechecking my SP chart this morning, I see that the time correction
is
> > projected to Wednesday morning, not Thursday. The 25% retracement
has
> > contained the decline nicely and my NYSE model remains bullish - am
> > looking to trade the long side this morning with small position near
> > low, will add if upmove is confirmed above 1470.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Tuesday, June 06, 2000 9:37 AM
> > Subject: [RT] Re: S&P chart
> >
> >
> > > I had noticed flag (and gap support) on the SP hourly yesterday
> > evening
> > > but my time projections suggest that a correction of the strong
> rally
> > > should require the same amount of time as the rally itself which
> would
> > > take it to early Thursday. My biggest trading problem is entering
> > before
> > > corrections are complete so I'm trying to use some patience. The
> flag
> > > looks very good on the hourly, holding nicely above the 25%
> > retracement
> > > at 1460 (1373.50 - 1489) and OBV is rising strongly.
> > >
> > > Earl
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Dennis Holverstott" <dennis@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Tuesday, June 06, 2000 8:32 AM
> > > Subject: [RT] S&P chart
> > >
> > >
> > > > I'm surprised that none of the chartists have commented on the
> S&P.
> > > > Things that stand out to me on the 30-min are the classic head
and
> > > > shoulders, a gap that needs to be filled, and a bull flag. Earl?
> > > >
> > > > --
> > > > Dennis
> > >
> > >
> >
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> > --
> > > --------
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
>
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