|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Bonds are heading for the close and I'm headed out for a bit of golf
however a couple of final comments.
The retracement pulled back to the 50% level nullifying a high
probability long setup from the potential cup and handle pattern. Once
price started to rally again, we moved a copy of the retracement tool to
the low of the retracement and set it to project the 62% expansion at 97
and the 100% expansion at 97-06. The rally stopped dead in its tracks at
the 62% expansion and then pulled back sharply indicating weakness. Note
that the 38% retracement of the overall decline from Friday's high has
still not been reached. Thus the bear flag remains intact and 3 assaults
on a bullish breakout have been turned back frustrating longs and shorts
alike - not to say that this will not change in the last 30 minutes of
trading. This is why we wait patiently for high probability combinations
of price and pattern where we are likely to see enough momentum to keep
stops and profits intact.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, June 05, 2000 10:21 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: Bonds (Bear Flag vs Cup & Handle)
> Watching a couple of other patterns here now. First, the rally has
still
> failed to reach the 38% retracement indicating that the bear flag is
> still intact. The rally failed to reach the minimum price objective at
> 97-00 indicating lack of momentum. The horizontal red line (in 30
minute
> view) shows a possible Wyckoff thrust reversal. Now we are watching
the
> retracement of this rally to see if the 38% level at 96-24 holds. If
it
> does, we'll have a possible cup and handle long pattern. If it fails,
> probabilities are increased that the bear flag will break to south so
we
> will be looking for short entry setups. All of which is to say that
when
> trading, one must set personal opinions aside and trade the patterns
in
> the market as they evolve.
>
> This will likely be the last post on bonds today.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Monday, June 05, 2000 9:19 AM
> Subject: [RT] Re: Bonds (Bull Wedge)
>
>
> > As long as we started this, we'll continue a bit. Bonds have now
> traced
> > a bull wedge within the bear flag. The green line has more slope
than
> > the red line suggesting lack of strength. Further, Curtis Arnold's
> rule
> > for trading wedges is that the 40 period ma must be flat or trending
> in
> > direction of trade and 18 period ma must be trending in direction of
> > trade - conditions which are not met here so we won't take the long
> > trade using this pattern. Note that Arnold's PPS trading rules can
be
> > traded in many markets in many time frames: Curtis Arnold, PPS
Trading
> > System, Irwin.
> >
> > Earl
>
>
>
Attachment Converted: "f:\eudora\attach\USM_05F.gif"
|