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I hope this banter between Earl and myself is yielding something for
somebody! We clearly have very different day trading concepts. Firstly, I
have never used a 10 minute chart to trade off, although obviously I use
bigger time frames for confirmation. I cannot say much about moving
averages, as I don't use them - like indicators, for day trading they are
all lagging after the event.
But I do use the price action of the Spoo to help me when other things are
not equal! Look at the chart and you will see that the 50 retracement came
back to that pivotal support and could not break through - then the S&P put
in an electric bar for us to get long. If you look closely you will see the
bonds were totally wrong footed. We had all the world of time to act. It
then rose, like a 'towering bird' (if you know the expression?) and formed a
slightly extended double top. So we are short again and the S&P is
rallying with a nice big bar to keep us that way... Our stop is, of
course, behind DBYH... and we may well get down to the intraday low, break
it and have a lovely ride south. If we don't, we have put bread on the
table - but it is nice to speculate that some jam might come along...
As you can see, I like a very simple style. I just can't work out things
within things and what the locals are doing because, etc, etc. I think day
trading demands a clear and simple approach. It is price action that
rules - very much including the Spoo's (as an 'indicator' I will use!!)
Bill Eykyn
www.t-bondtrader.com
"Learn to read the tape"
----- Original Message -----
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, June 05, 2000 4:19 PM
Subject: [RT] Re: Bonds (Bull Wedge)
> As long as we started this, we'll continue a bit. Bonds have now traced
> a bull wedge within the bear flag. The green line has more slope than
> the red line suggesting lack of strength. Further, Curtis Arnold's rule
> for trading wedges is that the 40 period ma must be flat or trending in
> direction of trade and 18 period ma must be trending in direction of
> trade - conditions which are not met here so we won't take the long
> trade using this pattern. Note that Arnold's PPS trading rules can be
> traded in many markets in many time frames: Curtis Arnold, PPS Trading
> System, Irwin.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: "List-RealTraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Monday, June 05, 2000 9:01 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Bonds (caution)
>
>
> > Sell stop under the bear wedge has been cancelled to await a downside
> > breakout and retracement. The hesitation in moving back down indicates
> > that bonds may need to do a bit more work before moving out. In fact,
> we
> > will probably see a retest of the bear wedge second PH.
> >
> > Trading is all about probabilities, not certainties, so we only work
> the
> > trades which appear to have high probability.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Monday, June 05, 2000 8:47 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Bonds (caution)
> >
> >
> > > When the locals intend to push the market, they generally clear the
> > > stops and turn it quickly (e.g. back down through the blue line) -
> > > inability to do so indicates there is not a firm opinion in the pit.
> > If
> > > the market does not break quickly from any break under the previous
> PL
> > > at 96-15, one can expect an attempt to retest the PH.
> > >
> > > Earl
> >
> >
> >
>
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