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I just quoted the opening sentence of your post and, as you said, made a
counter point, which so far has been borne out in this morning's price
action. As I write we have a Doji Sandwich on good support and may well
get a retracement - who knows even reversal - but nine ticks in the bag is a
pleasant first trade for a Monday morning...
Bill Eykyn
www.t-bondtrader.com
"Learn to read the tape"
----- Original Message -----
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, June 05, 2000 2:17 PM
Subject: [RT] Re: Market Outlook
> Bill, If you are going to quote from my postings to make a
> counter-point, I would appreciate it if you do not quote my comments out
> of context. My comment regarding bonds was not in any way an unqualified
> opinion that bonds will continue to rally here. Even the AGet daily
> chart which I posted by request suggests a w.4 correction is in order.
>
> "The big surprise for me this week has been the turnabout in bonds -
> they
> have blown right through AGet's daily w.4 projection and caused AGet to
> reclassify this rally from corrective to impulsive suggesting that more
> upside lies ahead. It should be noted that the weekly charts remain in
> w.4 decline so the intermediate charts have yet to confirm a change in
> trend. The Jun-Dec spread in Fed Funds dropped from indicating 3
> increases at 1/4 each to 2. Finally, corporate bond funds have started
> to improve across short, intermediate, and long maturaties. In fact,
> bond funds have performed nicely for several weeks now. Still, I think
> some caution is warranted as rates appear to be significantly
> discounting inflation prospects in wages, benefit costs (especially
> health care), energy, commodities, and services. We are continuing to
> hold bond funds (mainly corporates) for yield without adding to
> positions or shifting duration."
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "T-Bondtrader" <t-bondtrader@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>; <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Monday, June 05, 2000 5:50 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Market Outlook
>
>
> > > The big surprise for me this week has been the turnabout in bonds -
> they
> > > have blown right through AGet's daily w.4 projection and caused AGet
> to
> > > reclassify this rally from corrective to impulsive suggesting that
> more
> > > upside lies ahead.
> >
> >
> > Here is an alternative perspective or a different conclusion from
> evaluating
> > the same picture!
> >
> > A few moons ago when I was visiting my daughter in the USA, I found
> myself
> > riding in the desert in Arizona and seeing the enormous water spout,
> from
> > many miles away. This huge column and the water falling, as the wind
> blew
> > it in an arc to the ground. Later we went to Fountain Falls and
> sought it
> > close up. The largest in the world, I was told, while I was thinking
> of
> > the one in Geneva...
> >
> > Anyway, on my return to England the bonds made and exact such pattern
> and so
> > I christened it Fountain Falls. On every occasion since then, after
> such a
> > pattern we have had lower prices. This is very much in line with the
> > normal expectation of an Upthrust.
> >
> > The pattern is time was formed as the market retraced through the .618
> > retracement line from the Contract High, but - and this is the
> important
> > bit - it then came back and closed on the 'other' side of the line.
> > Consequently, I expect lower prices, rather than it "suggesting that
> more
> > upside lies ahead."
> >
> > So, it will be interesting to see what it does do. As a day trader I
> > couldn't really care less what it does, because I will attempt to
> follow the
> > market wherever it goes. However, according to my analysis I shall
> be
> > looking for short trades, but quite willing to accept long ones, if
> the tape
> > says that is what it is going to do. But in the vein of the last
> > continuation Doji Sandwich, I might well punt a put for the hell of
> it...
> >
> > Incidentally, the yellow lines on the chart are the overnight high and
> low
> > and it is interesting that it could not take out the .618 line. Ah
> well,
> > we'll see very shortly. Meanwhile, I hope the Fountain Falls helps
> someone
> > to make some money. A pretty picture isn't it?
> >
> > Bill Eykyn
> > www.t-bondtrader.com
> > "Learn to read the tape"
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> --------
>
>
> >
> >
> >
>
>
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