|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
----- Original Message -----
From: "MTG" <mtg1021@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, June 04, 2000 5:04 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Market Outlook
> do you have an Aget chart of the bonds that you can post??? if it
isn't too
> much trouble that is ???
> thanks
> Mike
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, June 04, 2000 5:55 PM
> Subject: [RT] Market Outlook
>
>
> > The big surprise for me this week has been the turnabout in bonds -
they
> > have blown right through AGet's daily w.4 projection and caused AGet
to
> > reclassify this rally from corrective to impulsive suggesting that
more
> > upside lies ahead. It should be noted that the weekly charts remain
in
> > w.4 decline so the intermediate charts have yet to confirm a change
in
> > trend. The Jun-Dec spread in Fed Funds dropped from indicating 3
> > increases at 1/4 each to 2. Finally, corporate bond funds have
started
> > to improve across short, intermediate, and long maturaties. In fact,
> > bond funds have performed nicely for several weeks now. Still, I
think
> > some caution is warranted as rates appear to be significantly
> > discounting inflation prospects in wages, benefit costs (especially
> > health care), energy, commodities, and services. We are continuing
to
> > hold bond funds (mainly corporates) for yield without adding to
> > positions or shifting duration.
> >
> > Looking at the equities, both NYSE and NASDAQ models remain on a
buy.
> > Both the NYSE daily and weekly breadth models continue to look good.
> > NASDAQ daily breadth models look good, however the weekly has yet to
> > show much improvement - a sign that the bear is likely to have
another
> > go at the NASDAQ to complete the decline with a w.5 and that new
highs
> > are unlikely in the intermediate future. Normally, the strong NYSE
> > models would have us heavily long in S&P funds, however I continue
to
> > believe that there is heightened risk in the equity markets from
high
> > short term rates. We have done well with the REIT index fund and it
> > looks like it has more room to move up. Small caps, which were
pounded
> > badly in the decline, have perked up and we have taken a light
position
> > in the small cap growth fund - growth ratios are leading value and
small
> > cap are leading big cap however I have a very tight trigger finger
on
> > this one. With the dollar topping and yen bottoming, we have
re-entered
> > the Asia pacific index fund which appears to have started a w.5
advance,
> > and will probably be adding to it more aggressively with any
> > confirmation that the dollar has topped. I continue to watch the
> > European index fund, but want to see signs of a firm bottom in the
Euro
> > without appreciably higher interest rates before committing funds.
> > Finally, the precious metal fund is being watched carefully for
signs of
> > opportunity - both gold and silver futures perked up noticeably when
the
> > dollar weakened.
> >
> > The currencies are at the top of our watch list. The monthly and
weekly
> > charts show a completed w.5 high and the daily chart shows an
incomplete
> > w.4 decline bouncing off strong support. The next couple of weeks
are
> > going to be critical for the dollar - either it will reassert its
strong
> > upward trend or it will begin to confirm that the long rally in the
> > dollar is over. A change in trend for the dollar has CRITICAL
> > implications for the flow of funds into US equity and bond markets,
> > equity prices, interest rates, commodity prices, and the cost of
> > imports. A clean move up through 112.50-113.50 would suggest the
dollar
> > has more room on the upside. A decline below 105 would indicate
> > something serious may be afoot.
> >
> > On the trading front, we are working the BP and JY charts closely,
> > looking for a pullback in US, and a strong rally in W.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> >
> >
>
>
Attachment Converted: "f:\eudora\attach\US00U.gif"
|