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WoW! Honesty and courtesy coupled with humility and caring. I am once
again proud to be sub'd to this list which is becoming a comfort to those
in trouble and idea sharing venue rather than an ego/"flag" waving contest.
Thanks to each of you for your contributions to the list of recent and to
those who normally just "toast" anyone who's opinion doesn't match theirs,
for being mute of recent.
As to averaging in, I often do that provided the funamentals of the company
are such that when the selling stops, the issue has a high likelyhood of
returning to the original entry point at a minimum. One good practice is
to never look at the stock's 52 week highs. Determine what it should be
priced at and not what it *was* priced at when you decide if you want to
average in. I am currently averaging into T on every drop of a point or
more and have been for some time. The street still thinks that the largest
cable firm in America is a long distance company. Note, I said cable, not
cable tv. Many things can and will flow over those broadband cable lines
and I personally think that C Michael Armstrong is a genius. My target
for T is $70 and that is "my" double your money pick for the next 52 weeks.
:)
I'm also buying some "destroyed" small caps such as ZIPL, NPLS, and RRC.
Still holding LU, BEL, GERN, (bought at $17), C and RIG. Beyond this, I
trade with the market flow on a daily basis.
Hope everyone has a great weekend... I'm going fishing. :))
Bob
At 12:31 PM 6/2/00 -0700, you wrote:
>
>Wong,
>
>A very courageous post!
>
>This shows real life as a real trader...
>At least you're sticking to your principles..
>
>Personally, I'd not hold such a strong opinion,
>I'd be out of the trade a long time ago. But that's
>just me..
>
>I have a time-stop as well as a price stop. If
>I've been in a trade longer than 3 bars, and it's
>not going my way, I have to find the best exit, take
>a loss..
>
>After all, I didn't get into a trade for the pleasure
>of being sc**wed around, waiting for the market to
>agree with me..
>
>But your trading style is different, which is fine, it
>can have merit too..
>
>-Neal.
>
>At 01:36 PM 6/2/00 -0700, wong wrote:
>>Hi All:
>>
>>It's quite a humbling experience for me in the last few weeks.
>>
>>All through my posts about my averaging down buy strategy, I maintained
>>that the basic assumption was that the stock market was still in a bull
>>market. Averaging down buying in a bear market, I also mentioned, would be
>>tentamount to committing financial suicide.
>>
>>Hindsight told me I should have gotten out of a lot of my calls/leaps
>>earlier on. In fact, my trading systems did give a number of sell (ie,
>>liquidating) signals on ALL the stocks that I have calls/leaps on. Greed
>>and fear held me back and I didn't sell.
>>
>>In fact, I bought more leaps up to May 24.
>>
>>Needless to say, the next few days saw more carnage...
>>
>>
>>In any event, things are a little bit better, though I'm still way off from
>>my best, which was on Mar 27 this year.
>>
>>
>>Since in my previous last few posts, I mentioned about averaging down on
>>WMF AH (MSFT JAN2002 140 call), here's a summary of what I bought so far.
>>Note commission is omitted.
>>
>> stk # contracts purchase cash
>>Date closed @ bought price outlay
>>----- -------- ----------- -------- -------
>>04-05 86.375 20 9.875 19,750
>>04-17 75.875 40 5.750 23,000
>>04-25 69.375 25 3.750 9,375 (partial fill)
>>04-27 69.813 100 3.750 37,500
>>05-24 65.563 200 2.125 42,500
>> --- -------
>> total 385 132,125
>> === =======
>> average price 3.432
>> =====
>>
>>On May 26, MSFT hit a 52-week-low of 60.375, and the leaps hit a low of
>>1.562 on that day.
>>
>>At this moment, MSFT is trading at 65.50, and the leaps at 1.812 to 2.062
>>bid and ask. At 1.812, I would have lost 62,363, or 47%, before commission.
>>
>>Would I further average down? Possibly, if MSFT goes below 55...
>>
>>
>>I'm a bit thin-skinned, and I've been debating whether I should continue to
>>post to RT, because of so many negative posts on my posts. But then, what
>>the heck! One can't be wrong ALL the time, anyways...
>>
>>
>>By May 26, I was convinced we are in a bear market, as far as the NASDAQ is
>>concerned. I'm really confused by events that happened afterwards.
>>
>>I figured that if we're in a bear market (i.e., NASDAQ), I'd better wait
>>for a sign that the bear is over, and the bull may begin again, to resume
>>my averaging down buy strategy.
>>
>>On the weekly (attached) NASDAQ chart, I'm essentially looking at the
>>wb-trend % indicator, on a weekly close basis. If the indicator crosses
>>above the "-0.35" magenta line, as a rule-of-thumb, this would give me some
>>indication that the bull market may resume, at the moment or some time in
>>the future.
>>
>>I will then switch to the daily Nasdaq chart, and monitor the oscillator
>>closely. I would be waiting for the daily oscillator to dip below the zero
>>line first, then cross above the zero line for a daily "buy" on the Nasdaq.
>> At/prior to/after that date, I would possibly resume buying the leaps...
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>Essentially, I still believe MSFT would not go much lower. I have been
>>proven wrong many times. Perhaps I could be wrong again...
>>
>>
>>But then posting to the group is not trying to impose one's opinion on
>>others, but just an exchange of ideas.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>Regards,
>>
>>Wong
>>
>>Attachment Converted: "f:\eudora\attach\NASDAQ weekly.gif"
>>
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