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Wong,
A very courageous post!
This shows real life as a real trader...
At least you're sticking to your principles..
Personally, I'd not hold such a strong opinion,
I'd be out of the trade a long time ago. But that's
just me..
I have a time-stop as well as a price stop. If
I've been in a trade longer than 3 bars, and it's
not going my way, I have to find the best exit, take
a loss..
After all, I didn't get into a trade for the pleasure
of being sc**wed around, waiting for the market to
agree with me..
But your trading style is different, which is fine, it
can have merit too..
-Neal.
At 01:36 PM 6/2/00 -0700, wong wrote:
>Hi All:
>
>It's quite a humbling experience for me in the last few weeks.
>
>All through my posts about my averaging down buy strategy, I maintained
>that the basic assumption was that the stock market was still in a bull
>market. Averaging down buying in a bear market, I also mentioned, would be
>tentamount to committing financial suicide.
>
>Hindsight told me I should have gotten out of a lot of my calls/leaps
>earlier on. In fact, my trading systems did give a number of sell (ie,
>liquidating) signals on ALL the stocks that I have calls/leaps on. Greed
>and fear held me back and I didn't sell.
>
>In fact, I bought more leaps up to May 24.
>
>Needless to say, the next few days saw more carnage...
>
>
>In any event, things are a little bit better, though I'm still way off from
>my best, which was on Mar 27 this year.
>
>
>Since in my previous last few posts, I mentioned about averaging down on
>WMF AH (MSFT JAN2002 140 call), here's a summary of what I bought so far.
>Note commission is omitted.
>
> stk # contracts purchase cash
>Date closed @ bought price outlay
>----- -------- ----------- -------- -------
>04-05 86.375 20 9.875 19,750
>04-17 75.875 40 5.750 23,000
>04-25 69.375 25 3.750 9,375 (partial fill)
>04-27 69.813 100 3.750 37,500
>05-24 65.563 200 2.125 42,500
> --- -------
> total 385 132,125
> === =======
> average price 3.432
> =====
>
>On May 26, MSFT hit a 52-week-low of 60.375, and the leaps hit a low of
>1.562 on that day.
>
>At this moment, MSFT is trading at 65.50, and the leaps at 1.812 to 2.062
>bid and ask. At 1.812, I would have lost 62,363, or 47%, before commission.
>
>Would I further average down? Possibly, if MSFT goes below 55...
>
>
>I'm a bit thin-skinned, and I've been debating whether I should continue to
>post to RT, because of so many negative posts on my posts. But then, what
>the heck! One can't be wrong ALL the time, anyways...
>
>
>By May 26, I was convinced we are in a bear market, as far as the NASDAQ is
>concerned. I'm really confused by events that happened afterwards.
>
>I figured that if we're in a bear market (i.e., NASDAQ), I'd better wait
>for a sign that the bear is over, and the bull may begin again, to resume
>my averaging down buy strategy.
>
>On the weekly (attached) NASDAQ chart, I'm essentially looking at the
>wb-trend % indicator, on a weekly close basis. If the indicator crosses
>above the "-0.35" magenta line, as a rule-of-thumb, this would give me some
>indication that the bull market may resume, at the moment or some time in
>the future.
>
>I will then switch to the daily Nasdaq chart, and monitor the oscillator
>closely. I would be waiting for the daily oscillator to dip below the zero
>line first, then cross above the zero line for a daily "buy" on the Nasdaq.
> At/prior to/after that date, I would possibly resume buying the leaps...
>
>
>
>
>Essentially, I still believe MSFT would not go much lower. I have been
>proven wrong many times. Perhaps I could be wrong again...
>
>
>But then posting to the group is not trying to impose one's opinion on
>others, but just an exchange of ideas.
>
>
>
>
>Regards,
>
>Wong
>
>Attachment Converted: "f:\eudora\attach\NASDAQ weekly.gif"
>
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