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I think we need a 12-step program here! Although everybody tells me that
everybody is bearish stocks and scared, I keep seeing posts about the
market going up. Until the S&P gets out of its 5-6 day range and holds
there, it is in a range at best, and a downtrend at worst. And, NASDAQ
still looks sickly by some measures.
That said, I do think we are at or near a bottom s-t and should be
somewhat higher 4-6 weeks from now, but I suspect we open lower on
Friday and need to wait until something good happens before committing
to longs (I am not talking about intraday trading here). Personally, I'd
be neutral stox. And, long-term, I would still be amazed if NASDAQ does
not get to at least 2800 if not 2566 (1900 not out of the question) with
S&P to 1220 with 1050 worst case, before 2000 is out. We might see S&P
at 1500 in between though. Get yer motion sickness pills. The volatility
has only just begun!
As for bonds, patterns still say new lows to me (a month or two ago, I
thought the lows from Jan were pretty safe and I still have a hard time
seeing us get there logically, but TA is not about what I have a hard
time with. The wave pattern can be interpreted as calling for a new low
as Earl Adamy has noted before), although gains much past the low-95s
might make that questionable without another couple of points higher.
Steve Poser
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Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
url: http://www.poserglobal.com
email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Tel: 201-995-0845
Fax: 201-995-0846
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