|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
<x-html><!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=windows-1252" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2722.2800" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV>
<DIV>Posted this early Friday morning before I left town and it looks like
this was never broadcast by the list server.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Earl</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx"; title=eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>Earl Adamy</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 19, 2000 6:41 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [RT] Bear Flag Breakout (2)</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>I omitted an important tidbit of trading in my previous note. Whenever I
review my trading logs, I find that the most common reason for a loss is not bad
positioning in the market but bad timing and the bad timing is generally jumping
into a trade before the setup is mature i.e. before w.2's and w.4's are
complete. Thus one of the most important lessons I have learned is patience to
wait for the high probability setup. In the trading game there are no lack of
boats departing the dock which will carry your money so if one misses a boat
here and there, there will always be another.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>In the case of bonds, my weekly work suggests a retest of the Jan lows so I
am looking to trade the short side. AGet is my primary position trading tool so
most entries will be based on wave counts. Should a (non-EW) price pattern
(wedge, triangle, reversal, etc.) suggest a trade not indicated by AGet, I may
take it as long as R/R looks good and it lies in the direction of the major
trend.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Earl</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Earl Adamy
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 19, 2000 6:14 AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [RT] Bear Flag Breakout
(2)</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>One must always keep in mind that the markets will do whatever they want
to do, so analysis is directed and improving the odds of trading rather than
certainties. That said, the correction to date does not qualify
(according to AGet or my own reading) as a completed w.4 so I will not enter
any position trades based on transition from w.4 to w.5. I never mind standing
aside when I do not understand the structure or direction of a market.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Regarding OI, I find it of only occasional use - futures OI
is created by short sellers selling a future to a willing buyer. On the
surface OI would seem to offer some information e.g. price going up as OI
expands indicates the sellers are bearish. In practice however, it is who the
sellers are which is more meaningful when it comes to futures and one looks to
the Commitment Of Traders reports for this info. Even this info has
limitations - I use it to enhance/confirm trading decisions rather than as
trading signals.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>OOH, a simple OBV study run on futures tick volume can provide rather
useful information for intraday trading, bonds included.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Earl</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed May 24 20:44:55 2000
Return-Path: <listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Received: from mail.pajo.com (mail.pajo.com [216.116.96.4])
by purebytes.com (8.9.3/8.9.3) with ESMTP id UAA10159
for <neal@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Wed, 24 May 2000 20:19:48 -0700
Received: from REALTRADERS.COM ([208.179.56.198])
by mail.pajo.com (8.9.1a/8.9.0) with ESMTP id UAA32549;
Wed, 24 May 2000 20:20:29 -0700
Received: from zianet.com by realtraders.com
with SMTP (MDaemon.v3.0.3.R)
for <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Wed, 24 May 2000 20:11:54 -0700
Received: (qmail 3601 invoked by alias); 25 May 2000 03:18:14 -0000
Delivered-To: alias-outgoing-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx@outgoing
Received: (qmail 2157 invoked by uid 0); 25 May 2000 03:17:31 -0000
Received: from ruidoso0309.zianet.com (HELO p13301) (207.66.42.69)
by zianet.com with SMTP; 25 May 2000 03:17:31 -0000
Message-ID: <00b401bfc5f7$9d993240$452a42cf@xxxxxx>
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Fw: More thoughts on bonds
Date: Wed, 24 May 2000 21:08:28 -0600
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: multipart/mixed;
boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0068_01BFC5C4.3527DCD0"
X-Priority: 3
X-MSMail-Priority: Normal
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600
X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2919.6600
X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
X-Return-Path: eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx
X-MDRcpt-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sender: listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Precedence: bulk
X-MDMailing-List: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
X-MDSend-Notifications-To: listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Reply-To: eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx
Status:
<x-html><!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=windows-1252" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2722.2800" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV>
<DIV>Posted this early Friday morning before I left town and it looks like
this was never broadcast by the list server.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Earl</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx"; title=eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>Earl Adamy</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 19, 2000 7:52 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> More thoughts on bonds</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Attached is daily AGet chart of June bonds. The "-4-" suggests w.4
targets of 94-29 or 95-18 and the ellipse has yet to resolve. Time clusters
suggest a possible turning point on 26May or 27May. The "-3-" (below the 3
in circle) suggests an alternate scenario where w.3 extends to 89-25 which would
mean that the current correction is a w.4 of lesser degree. Since the currently
labeled w.3 achieved a 162% expansion of w.1, the alternate scenario has a low
probability. Thus AGet suggests patience in waiting for completion of w.4
on/around 26May. Once w.4 has achieved the projected pullback in time and price,
one could use an hourly chart for short entry at/near the retracement.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Earl</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Earl Adamy
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 19, 2000 6:41 AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [RT] Bear Flag Breakout
(2)</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>I omitted an important tidbit of trading in my previous note. Whenever I
review my trading logs, I find that the most common reason for a loss is not
bad positioning in the market but bad timing and the bad timing is generally
jumping into a trade before the setup is mature i.e. before w.2's and w.4's
are complete. Thus one of the most important lessons I have learned is
patience to wait for the high probability setup. In the trading game there are
no lack of boats departing the dock which will carry your money so if one
misses a boat here and there, there will always be another.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>In the case of bonds, my weekly work suggests a retest of the Jan lows so
I am looking to trade the short side. AGet is my primary position trading tool
so most entries will be based on wave counts. Should a (non-EW) price pattern
(wedge, triangle, reversal, etc.) suggest a trade not indicated by AGet, I may
take it as long as R/R looks good and it lies in the direction of the major
trend.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Earl</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Earl Adamy
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 19, 2000 6:14
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [RT] Bear Flag Breakout
(2)</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>One must always keep in mind that the markets will do whatever they
want to do, so analysis is directed and improving the odds of trading rather
than certainties. That said, the correction to date does not qualify
(according to AGet or my own reading) as a completed w.4 so I will not enter
any position trades based on transition from w.4 to w.5. I never mind
standing aside when I do not understand the structure or direction of a
market.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Regarding OI, I find it of only occasional use - futures OI
is created by short sellers selling a future to a willing buyer. On the
surface OI would seem to offer some information e.g. price going up as
OI expands indicates the sellers are bearish. In practice however, it is who
the sellers are which is more meaningful when it comes to futures and one
looks to the Commitment Of Traders reports for this info. Even this info has
limitations - I use it to enhance/confirm trading decisions rather than as
trading signals.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>OOH, a simple OBV study run on futures tick volume can provide rather
useful information for intraday trading, bonds included.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Earl</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>
Attachment Converted: "f:\eudora\attach\US00M1.gif"
|