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[RT] Fw: Bear Flag Breakout (2)



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<DIV>Posted this early Friday morning before I left town&nbsp;and it looks like 
this was never broadcast by the list server.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Earl</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- 
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A 
href="mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx"; title=eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>Earl Adamy</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; 
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 19, 2000 6:41 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [RT] Bear Flag Breakout (2)</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>I omitted an important tidbit of trading in my previous note. Whenever I 
review my trading logs, I find that the most common reason for a loss is not bad 
positioning in the market but bad timing and the bad timing is generally jumping 
into a trade before the setup is mature i.e. before w.2's and w.4's are 
complete. Thus one of the most important lessons I have learned is patience to 
wait for the high probability setup. In the trading game there are no lack of 
boats departing the dock which will carry your money so if one misses a boat 
here and there, there will always be another.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>In the case of bonds, my weekly work suggests a retest of the Jan lows so I 
am looking to trade the short side. AGet is my primary position trading tool so 
most entries will be based on wave counts. Should a (non-EW) price pattern 
(wedge, triangle, reversal, etc.) suggest a trade not indicated by AGet, I may 
take it as long as R/R looks good and it lies in the direction of the major 
trend.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Earl</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  Earl Adamy 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; 
  title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 19, 2000 6:14 AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [RT] Bear Flag Breakout 
  (2)</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV>One must always keep in mind that the markets will do whatever they want 
  to do, so analysis is directed and improving the odds of trading rather than 
  certainties. That said, the correction to date does not&nbsp;qualify 
  (according to AGet or my own reading) as a completed w.4 so I will not enter 
  any position trades based on transition from w.4 to w.5. I never mind standing 
  aside when I do not understand the structure or direction of a market.</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>Regarding OI, I find it of only occasional use - futures OI 
  is&nbsp;created by short sellers selling a future to a willing buyer. On the 
  surface OI would seem to&nbsp;offer some information e.g. price going up as OI 
  expands indicates the sellers are bearish. In practice however, it is who the 
  sellers are which is more meaningful when it comes to futures and one looks to 
  the Commitment Of Traders reports for this info. Even this info has 
  limitations - I use it to enhance/confirm trading decisions rather than as 
  trading signals.</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>OOH, a simple OBV study run on futures tick volume can provide rather 
  useful information for intraday trading, bonds included.</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>Earl</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Fw: More thoughts on bonds
Date: Wed, 24 May 2000 21:08:28 -0600
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<DIV>
<DIV>Posted this early Friday morning before I left town&nbsp;and it looks like 
this was never broadcast by the list server.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Earl</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- 
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A 
href="mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx"; title=eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>Earl Adamy</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; 
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 19, 2000 7:52 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> More thoughts on bonds</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Attached is daily AGet chart of June bonds. The "-4-" suggests&nbsp;w.4 
targets of 94-29 or 95-18 and the ellipse has yet to resolve. Time clusters 
suggest a possible turning point on 26May or 27May.&nbsp; The "-3-" (below the 3 
in circle) suggests an alternate scenario where w.3 extends to 89-25 which would 
mean that the current correction is a w.4 of lesser degree. Since the currently 
labeled w.3 achieved a 162% expansion of w.1, the alternate scenario has a low 
probability. Thus AGet suggests patience in waiting for completion of w.4 
on/around 26May. Once w.4 has achieved the projected pullback in time and price, 
one could use an hourly chart for short entry at/near the retracement.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Earl</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  Earl Adamy 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; 
  title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 19, 2000 6:41 AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [RT] Bear Flag Breakout 
  (2)</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV>I omitted an important tidbit of trading in my previous note. Whenever I 
  review my trading logs, I find that the most common reason for a loss is not 
  bad positioning in the market but bad timing and the bad timing is generally 
  jumping into a trade before the setup is mature i.e. before w.2's and w.4's 
  are complete. Thus one of the most important lessons I have learned is 
  patience to wait for the high probability setup. In the trading game there are 
  no lack of boats departing the dock which will carry your money so if one 
  misses a boat here and there, there will always be another.</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>In the case of bonds, my weekly work suggests a retest of the Jan lows so 
  I am looking to trade the short side. AGet is my primary position trading tool 
  so most entries will be based on wave counts. Should a (non-EW) price pattern 
  (wedge, triangle, reversal, etc.) suggest a trade not indicated by AGet, I may 
  take it as long as R/R looks good and it lies in the direction of the major 
  trend.</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>Earl</DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE 
  style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
    Earl Adamy 
    </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; 
    title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 19, 2000 6:14 
AM</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [RT] Bear Flag Breakout 
    (2)</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV>One must always keep in mind that the markets will do whatever they 
    want to do, so analysis is directed and improving the odds of trading rather 
    than certainties. That said, the correction to date does not&nbsp;qualify 
    (according to AGet or my own reading) as a completed w.4 so I will not enter 
    any position trades based on transition from w.4 to w.5. I never mind 
    standing aside when I do not understand the structure or direction of a 
    market.</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>Regarding OI, I find it of only occasional use - futures OI 
    is&nbsp;created by short sellers selling a future to a willing buyer. On the 
    surface OI would seem to&nbsp;offer some information e.g. price going up as 
    OI expands indicates the sellers are bearish. In practice however, it is who 
    the sellers are which is more meaningful when it comes to futures and one 
    looks to the Commitment Of Traders reports for this info. Even this info has 
    limitations - I use it to enhance/confirm trading decisions rather than as 
    trading signals.</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>OOH, a simple OBV study run on futures tick volume can provide rather 
    useful information for intraday trading, bonds included.</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>Earl</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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