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Here's some historical data FYI, while we await the dreaded announcement:
1994 "soft landing" interest rate history:
02/04/94: 25 bp hike
03/22/94: 25 bp hike
04/18/94: 25 bp hike
05/17/94: 50 bp hike
08/16/94: 50 bp hike
11/15/94: 75 bp hike
02/01/95: 50 bp hike
Today, as in 1994, stocks & bonds rallied out of the gate before the FRB
announcement.
Like today's hike, this May 17 1994 50bp hike was widely anticipated in that
day and age, too.
EOD charts for that era are attached.
The biggest takeaway from that era is that Technology remained weaker than
Big Cap cyclicals well into the year.
Here's the SPX group performance on May 17, 1994.
Bonds also rallied that day, don't have intraday data.
Top 10 SPX Sector gainers on 5.17.94 =
Computers 3.07%
Money center banks 2.72%
Long distance phones 2.68%
Retail 2.38%
Beverages 2.0%
Brokers 1.99%
Utes 1.6%
Drugs 1.54%
Reg banks 1.46%
Semiconductors 1.27%
Bottom SPX sector performers:
Baby bells -0.07%
Oil well equip -0.12%
Chemicals -0.16%
Communication equip -0.26%
Dow +1.34% (thrust out of MA congestion and rising wedge).
SPX +1.10%
Naz -0.05% (but put in a Tail reversal bar, precursor to an eventual 6%
rally that fizzled).
Best SPX stocks:
IBM 4.7%
SBC 4.4%
AOL 4.3%
Citibank 4.21%
Wal Mart 3.85%
Worst SPX stocks:
DELL -1.03%
ORCL -1.44%
CSCO -1.67%
HWP -2.08%
Gitanshu
Attachment Converted: "f:\eudora\attach\dow94d.gif"
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