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Hi Bob et al,
I don't trade the NASDAQ, but I've been watching a friend suffer through the
past month and a half - so I keep an eye on it in order to see if it's
possible to offer some encouragement in the near term. So far, not much has
presented itself; at the low on 4/4/00, I thought perhaps we could get a
rally to a new high as in a B wave in an expanded flat. But that idea went
out the window in a hurry... : (
I can see the following scenario occurring however: how about a drop this
week to a new low to shake out the weaker players, followed by a decent
rally that lets the smarter traders get out of their longs at a better
price. You know, one of those cute little bear traps. I can see it as part
of a flat correction in the middle of a bear market, leading to some of the
lower numbers Steve Poser mentioned. This is my preferred count (see the
attached chart), but there are so many possibilities, who knows? If there's
a new low followed by a decent setup, there could be a nice ride up on the C
wave. There are problems with this count, but even my alternate counts
involve a rally of some duration (God knows how far) - but probably not
until after that new low I anticipate.
Oh yeah - not to assume anything here is certain, but that MA crossover fade
I posted would seem to indicate that the new low scenario I outlined above
has a fair chance of occurring (don't worry Clyde, I'm not about to bet the
farm on it based on the sample size I have so far!). But we'll see what
happens...
Dennis C.
----- Original Message -----
From: BobR <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, May 14, 2000 8:12 AM
Subject: [RT] MKT - NASDAQ
> A "W" pattern appears to be developing in the NASDAQ and its cumulative
net
> volume, i.e. cum(upvol - downvol). A cross of the NASDAQ cumulative
volume
> above the 21 day exponential moving average would kick the NASDAQ up into
> the right side of the "W" formation. So far the point C is higher than
> point A on both the NASDAQ price and cumulative volume. A move by price
and
> CV above points B would complete the pattern and bode well for a summer
> rally. A drop below point C is of course a reassertion by the bear
against
> the timidity of a bull with a sword in his neck. The NYA cumulative net
> volume continues to track above its 21 day EMA after a continuation buy
> last week.
>
> Bob Roeske
>
>
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