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Bonds, on the other hand, are stretching the up side and
> should reverse lower. My only concern right now is that the likely
> impetus to turn bonds lower, seems just as likely to turn stocks lower.
> Of course, bonds did seem to rally on the weak stock market, so if we
> can rally for a couple of days here, bonds might slide to new lows. But,
> the only way stocks rally is if retail sales and PPI are as expected.
> Better than expected should help both stocks and bonds.
I am not sure when you actually wrote the above, but whenever it was, it now
ties in very interestingly with where the bonds are now. On Friday, the
bonds completed a very clear and what I think will be a significant Doji
Sandwich, as a possible conclusion of the retracement from the Contract
High. If on Monday we see the continuation of this downward movement and
the current line in the sand at 92^27 taken out, then I think I concur with
the chances of a significant drop to below the Contract Low.
I have now idea on the time scale and I am interested to see you "...see a
significant risk of a dump to 2566 on the NASDAQ comp, and even 1900 cannot
be eliminated. Sub-9000 is not impossible on the Dow and the S&P can go to
1050 or so." To be clear, is this what you are expecting in the next few
days? Are you thinking of the 'big crash' taking place within this time
scale?
Because if this is your thinking, I would appreciate more from you, since my
Doji Sandwich could then be another good continuation (bearish) DS and make
it worth another punt on the puts (for me, probably the OEX)
Do say more, please....
Bill Eykyn
www.t-bondtrader.com
"Learn to read the tape"
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