[RT] Gen: M3 Seasonality

[Ronald McEwan <rmac@xxxxxxxx>]

Lee wrote

 " So if the money supply continues to increase for a while, then drops 
into 
 Sept., what should we expect? What's correlated to the money supply?"

The money supply is almost perfectly correlated with the S&P 500 index
and the US equity markets in general. I was unable to extract a reliable
seasonality component for the S&P 500 (or any other large cap index), so
I hit upon using the M3 data as substitute. The results are displayed in
the attached gif.  I should warn you that I have been told by some "Wall
Street" Pro's (like the people you see on CNBC) that it is not possible
to predict M3, so take this for what it's worth.  As for me, until I get
on CNBC, I am putting all my money in a mattress (or maybe bonds) until
the fall.

 
Thanks for bringing this up

Ron McEwan

 


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