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It's back! On weekly S&P chart, draw extended TL from 09Oct98 low to
22Oct99 low. Note that the TL was slightly penetrated on 03Mar, a bit
deeper on 21Apr, and Wednesday's low once again rests on the TL. The
entire pattern in the big cap indexes has been corrective for well over
a year now (more or less since the TBill rate rose 1% above its previous
low) so this is not a critical TL, however appearance suggests it will
not hold and that we will retest the Oct99 low. With fed funds futures
pricing in another 1% rise, I would not be on the markets doing anything
better than trading in a range trading until TBill rates fall by at
least 0.5% from their high. NYSE models closed Wednesday on a sell.
Earl
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