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What I like about PEI is their willingness to discuss their analysis in detail. Whether
their analysis turns out wrong or right, it is food for thought. Of course, everyone
should always make their own decisions.
Long term, it looks like Japan could wind up in much more hot water than they are now. If
the US consumer should catch a cold and cut back the buying of imported goods, countries
like Japan that depend so much on exports will be in a world of difficultly. Which will
come first - the US consumer stops buying imports or Japan economy goes further south,
precipitating some kind of world crisis? It does look like the Yen will eventually fall
mightily.
I do like this PEI excerpt:
> Central Bankers may be arrogant enough to believe
> that they are in control of the global economy, but in
> fact they are only reacting to forces much larger than
> themselves. They are not in control. If they knew a
> bit more about the theory of cycles, they would recognize
> that fact. But Modern Man views a belief in cycles as
> nothing more than superstition....crude, primitive.....
> nothing more than casting chicken bones to decide
> your fate.
>
> I wonder though, who is casting chicken bones,
> those who believe in cycles, or the politicians and
> Central Bankers who don't believe in cycles and
> don't recognize the limits of their own power.
The world markets & economies are so interrelated now that all inputs have to be
considered as no country is an island anymore. I guess that is the problem that the FED
faces in making its decisions. If the FED continues to raise US rates, it will likely
draw more capital inflows to the US, putting further pressure on Japan and others (and
that capital might really send US markets through the roof, setting up the eventual crash
that always happens (new economy, notwithstanding <g>).
btw: Did anyone catch the 2 hour video on CNBC Monday based on the new book "Wall
Street - The Great Game"? I thought it very interesting and well done. It doesn't look
like we are anywhere near the excesses depicted in the 1860's where brokers made (and
often spent) 10k in one day. Or even the 1890's or 1920's.
JW
-----Original Message-----
From: listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
Behalf Of Earl Adamy
Sent: Wednesday, April 26, 2000 7:23 AM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] Re: James Smith market projection
Interesting article, especially with respect to Europe. I've always
enjoyed PEI commentary and found some value in it however one needs to
use it with care. PEI has been dead wrong on Japan and the Yen for well
over 18 months now missing entirely a major low risk investment
opportunity in Sep98.
Earl
<snipped>
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