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----- Original Message -----
From: <Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, April 19, 2000 7:55 AM
Subject: [RT] RE: NASDAQ Momentum Waning?
> Subj: RE: [RT] NASDAQ Momentum Waning?
> Date: 4/19/00 6:35:35 AM Pacific Daylight Time
> From: sposer@xxxxxxxxxxxxx (Steven Poser)
> To: Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
>
> Jim - I cannot send to the list from this email, so if you could forward
it,
> I'd appreciate it --
>
> There is no good three wave or five wave count to the bottom as there are
> overlaps all over the place. We have a series of three wave moves linked
up
> as far as I can tell all the way back to the high, but overlaps preclude
> counting it as a five wave drop. We might be able to suggest that the
> failure for a new high was a failed fifth wave. Then we might have just
> completed a-b-c. We can either go to new highs, or this could be a flat,
or
> this could be an x-wave.
>
> My leaning is that we retrace up towards 4400 and then run lower again in
> five waves towards 2560/2100 over the next six months. That will really
> require a-b-c-x-a-b-c counting I suspect. I am not very long term bearish,
> and I am bullish s-t still (though today could be negative).
>
> For the S&P/Dow I also see similar complex results. I have the highs as an
> irregular b-wave. We can even ultimately rally towards 1500 again, but
would
> expect a final bottom close to 1050. A rally above the trendline off the
> March/April highs would have me much more bullish.
>
> Remember that the May/October time period is rarely ever positive. Also
note
> that bonds do not look too healthy. Even if they do not go to new yield
> highs, they show potential to trade into the mid-6.00% range. The buck is
> also due to get hammered by the Euro (although I am hugely bullish $
versus
> yen, except for the s-t which shows risk to ¥98 first, although that is
not
> confirmed).
>
> Overall, for the next couple of weeks, I'd be buying dips, but going
> forward, I'd be short stocks. At first, I'd also be short bonds, as both
> will likely fall in tandem initially until bonds reverse and surge taking
> yields from 6.40-6.50% or so toward as low as 5.00% (more likely 5.30%).
>
> Steve Poser
>
>
>
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