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Subj: RE: [RT] NASDAQ Momentum Waning?
Date: 4/19/00 6:35:35 AM Pacific Daylight Time
From: sposer@xxxxxxxxxxxxx (Steven Poser)
To: Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
Jim - I cannot send to the list from this email, so if you could forward it,
I'd appreciate it --
There is no good three wave or five wave count to the bottom as there are
overlaps all over the place. We have a series of three wave moves linked up
as far as I can tell all the way back to the high, but overlaps preclude
counting it as a five wave drop. We might be able to suggest that the
failure for a new high was a failed fifth wave. Then we might have just
completed a-b-c. We can either go to new highs, or this could be a flat, or
this could be an x-wave.
My leaning is that we retrace up towards 4400 and then run lower again in
five waves towards 2560/2100 over the next six months. That will really
require a-b-c-x-a-b-c counting I suspect. I am not very long term bearish,
and I am bullish s-t still (though today could be negative).
For the S&P/Dow I also see similar complex results. I have the highs as an
irregular b-wave. We can even ultimately rally towards 1500 again, but would
expect a final bottom close to 1050. A rally above the trendline off the
March/April highs would have me much more bullish.
Remember that the May/October time period is rarely ever positive. Also note
that bonds do not look too healthy. Even if they do not go to new yield
highs, they show potential to trade into the mid-6.00% range. The buck is
also due to get hammered by the Euro (although I am hugely bullish $ versus
yen, except for the s-t which shows risk to ¥98 first, although that is not
confirmed).
Overall, for the next couple of weeks, I'd be buying dips, but going
forward, I'd be short stocks. At first, I'd also be short bonds, as both
will likely fall in tandem initially until bonds reverse and surge taking
yields from 6.40-6.50% or so toward as low as 5.00% (more likely 5.30%).
Steve Poser
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