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It would require a close above 3885 in June ND futures to require a
re-evaluation of the impulsive decline price structure outlined in the
market outlook I posted this weekend - special note should be take of my
comments regarding time i.e. a few days of trading is immaterial to the
longer term picture. Even if the correction turns out to be a simple
ABC, more time will be required (Bob Miner's Dynamic Trading book is an
excellent reference on the use of price and time projections according
to pattern stage). None of my NASDAQ breadth models suggest that a
bottom is in place. NYSE models could fire a buy signal on close if
today's breadth is good, however I am not impatient to shovel money into
this market.
Also worth noting that rates on high grade commercial bonds have started
moving up again across the yield curve ... interest rate pressures are
building in spite of the nice rally in treasuries.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: <Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, April 19, 2000 5:11 AM
Subject: [RT] NASDAQ Momentum Waning?
> Hello to All,..
>
> Wedn 04-19 is day # 3 into the NASDAQ recovery (with dead cat bounces
> typically lasting 2 to 4 mkt days),..right into a logical area of
thick
> resistance
> on the chart. Also 04-19 stands out as a logical enrgy point (pivot)
date
> being 64 mkt days from 01-19-00,.. which in turn was 64 mkt days from
> 10-18-99,..was 64 mkt days from 07-19-00,..etc. So in a window where
> a turn of importance appears l logical...and 04-18 was a Full Moon.
Other
> (dissimilar ) methods also point to this 04-19 to 04-21 time frame as
marking
> an important tunring point. For instance 04-20 is 19 mkt days from
03-24
> turn date,..and Ned Markson has previously pointed out that Uranus and
Mars
> are
> conjunct (?) on 04-19. And Peter Laird's site....
> FIBO TIME
or...
> http://home.golden.net/~laird/TimeSPX.htm
> shows 04-18 as a pivot date for NASDAQ and 04-20 as a pivot date for
the
> S&P500. So as usual,...different methods pointing to common time
frame, etc.
>
> Would appreciate the thoughts of others (i.e. Earl,..Ben,..Norman,
Bob,
> Steve, Ned)
> for what to expect here. Key question in my mind is whether NASDAQ
has
> completed key low now moving higher,..or if past 3 day counter trend
rally is
> likely to be repelled with lower prices,.etc. ahead. Overseas markets
are
> barely budging despite the recovery in NASDAQ,...usually a sign that
> momentum in NASDAQ is overdone. Also,..the Put/Call ratio moderated
> from firm levels on Friday,..a sign that complacency has returned with
the
> advance in NASDAQ. Any thoughts on near term expectations much
> appreciated.
>
> Regards, JIM Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
>
>
>
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