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</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Apr 18 09:34:35 2000
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From: "Sean Cassidy" <scassidy@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] S&P Learning Curve
Date: Tue, 18 Apr 2000 12:26:50 -0400
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Can anyone give me the approximate learning curve
for most people trading e-mini S&Ps, in terms of dollars? I know this is
completely subjective and will vary widely from trader to trader but I would
just like to know what most successful traders went through in terms of drawdown
before becoming profitable. I am using some system software that is right most
of the time but have had trouble with slippage and a few bad fills. I am using
Jack Carl and they seem very slow. it sometimes takes a minute or more for an
order to become live. Is this bad? It sure seems to be. Again just a few
experiences of others would let me know if I am on the right track. After about
17 trades I am down 7 points and a total of just over $600. Is this good,
bad, should I be looking for a real job?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Sean</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Apr 18 09:36:53 2000
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From: "Sean Cassidy" <scassidy@xxxxxxxxx>
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Subject: [RT] S&P Learning Curve
Date: Tue, 18 Apr 2000 12:26:50 -0400
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Can anyone give me the approximate learning curve
for most people trading e-mini S&Ps, in terms of dollars? I know this is
completely subjective and will vary widely from trader to trader but I would
just like to know what most successful traders went through in terms of drawdown
before becoming profitable. I am using some system software that is right most
of the time but have had trouble with slippage and a few bad fills. I am using
Jack Carl and they seem very slow. it sometimes takes a minute or more for an
order to become live. Is this bad? It sure seems to be. Again just a few
experiences of others would let me know if I am on the right track. After about
17 trades I am down 7 points and a total of just over $600. Is this good,
bad, should I be looking for a real job?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Sean</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
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Reply-To: "Sean Cassidy" <scassidy@xxxxxxxxx>
From: "Sean Cassidy" <scassidy@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] S&P Learning Curve
Date: Tue, 18 Apr 2000 12:26:50 -0400
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Can anyone give me the approximate learning curve
for most people trading e-mini S&Ps, in terms of dollars? I know this is
completely subjective and will vary widely from trader to trader but I would
just like to know what most successful traders went through in terms of drawdown
before becoming profitable. I am using some system software that is right most
of the time but have had trouble with slippage and a few bad fills. I am using
Jack Carl and they seem very slow. it sometimes takes a minute or more for an
order to become live. Is this bad? It sure seems to be. Again just a few
experiences of others would let me know if I am on the right track. After about
17 trades I am down 7 points and a total of just over $600. Is this good,
bad, should I be looking for a real job?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Sean</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Apr 18 09:55:55 2000
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Date: Tue, 18 Apr 2000 17:51:02 +0200
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
From: Thomas Pfluegl <thomas.pfluegl@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Re: Money Management: Consecutive Losses
Cc: marlowec@xxxxxxx, hantran2@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
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Status:
Hi list,
>Bottom line, the statistics of runs doesn't tell the whole story.
>I hope this helps ... Marlowe
You are right in real trading terms (what this list is actually for).
Sure, the coin toss game assumes that the size of loss equals the size of a
profit, I just wanted to focus on consecutive runs.
I think it's a good idea to isolate all ingredients of a trading approach
and put it all together when research is done.
>Just curious, how many times do you have to expect to have to toss the coin
>to get 20 consecutive heads or tails? I have a feeling that it might require
>a very large number of trades to see that happen (on average).
>thanks for an interesting and informative post.
Though I already knew the results I ran the simulation a couple of days to
detemine when the runs occured.
Observations:
- in one run (10.000 iterations) the 20 consecutive heads/tails happened 4
times (# 157, 1394, 6720, 8072).
- in another run 20 consecutive heads/tails already happened after 37
calculations.
Bin Frequency Distribution
1.000 15 '''''''''''''''
2.000 7 '''''''
3.000 9 '''''''''
4.000 8 ''''''''
5.000 5 '''''
6.000 6 ''''''
7.000 8 ''''''''
8.000 13 '''''''''''''
9.000 10 ''''''''''
10.000 4 ''''
No pattern, as expected. Why should luck care when you started?
HTH,
Thomas
>"Marlowe Cassetti" <marlowec@xxxxxxx>
>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
> "Thomas Pfluegl" <thomas.pfluegl@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Cc: <ist@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>References: <4.1.20000414163657.024ea380@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: Re: [RT] Money Management: Consecutive Losses
>Date: Fri, 14 Apr 2000 19:20:47 -0600
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>
>Dear Friends,
>
>
>Let me put in my observations with real money. Over the last eight month
>period I traded a breakout system with a basket of futures and commodities,
>about 140 trades. While I had some good run-ups in equity I did suffer two
>large drawdown periods. Inspecting these periods revealed it wasn't the
>number of consecutive losses, but a series of small wins and larger losses
>with the % losses exceeding the % of wins. That was the killer rather than
>a large string of losses that makes a nasty losing streak.
>
>Bottom line, the statistics of runs doesn't tell the whole story.
>I hope this helps ... Marlowe
Thanks,
Thomas Pfluegl
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