|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
resent, size constraints
-----Original Message-----
From: Gitanshu Buch [mailto:OnWingsOfEagles@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Sunday, April 16, 2000 8:13 PM
Here are 4 contradictory charts.
The visual appeal is drawn to the obvious comparison with Nikkei,
1990's parabolic implosion.
The number crunch is drawn to how much more oversold it can get
before a snapback rally of giant proportions begins.
The more hopeful appeal is drawn to Morgan Stanley Capital's All
World Equities index, and the Hang Seng experience.
All patterns are tradable.
Personally it is very rare that I would hold positions for all
these years that it takes parabolic moves to unwind. My trading is
more tactical, and less strategic as these past emails have been.
I am also very hesitant being short of markets that have a natural
upside bias, preferring instead to be short of individual
securities as and when chart patterns indicate distribution of some sort.
But after a week like the last one, it helps to step back and
attempt to look at the big picture.
After all, we may live in a New Economy and make our choices based
on what works now.
But then, there is still the primal message of 1000 years of
recorded commercial history of greed, fear, money changing hands,
old money, new money, new money becoming old money, old money
remaining old money - and that sin we call speculation.
If the Nasdaq was being touted as oversold on commercial TV back on
Monday, I wonder what it is now.
If the Nasdaq was being propped up by BigFoot, Small Foot, Mutual
Fund Manager XYZ, I wonder what will prop it up once their
firepower is gone.
I want to not believe that the bigger funds (> $10 billion assets)
are so naive as their marketing profiles make them out to be. At
this young age and this small portfolio I have come to appreciate
the hedging power of derivatives. I am sure that they, with their
bigger better and faster risk management departments can and do
defend their positions like you and I small investor do - even
though the average mutual fund chart doesn't currently reflect it.
I want to not believe that this incredible global bull market in
equities is over - the MSCI World index does not show it to be as
terminal as the Nasdaq shows it to be over.
I want to not believe that when I am told that the money management
business is putting me in competition with some of the brightest
minds in the world, I am being told that I am brighter because I
can see the obvious.
It gives me no pleasure to be short the market and see 401ks get
rechristened 201ks.
Or maybe it will be as Jeff Cooper said on Thursday before the
Friday crash:
Whoever heard of a dead gorilla bounce?
Gitanshu
Attachment Converted: "f:\eudora\attach\compx50spr.gif"
Attachment Converted: "f:\eudora\attach\n225.gif"
|