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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=1>For five years, at least, American business has 
been in the grip of an apocalyptic, holy-rolling<BR>exaltation over the 
unparalleled prosperity of the "new era," upon which we, or it, or<BR>somebody 
has entered. Discussions of economic conditions in the press, on the platform, 
and<BR>by public officials have carried us into a cloudland of fantasy where all 
appraisal of present and<BR>future accomplishment is suffused with the vague 
implication that a North American millenium<BR>is imminent. Clear, critical, 
realistic and rational recognition of current problems and<BR>perplexities is 
rare. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=1>Changes in the structure and processes of American 
industry and trade have been swift and<BR>sweeping, as the President's Committee 
on Recent Economic Changes has so well shown.<BR>Have these changes 
fundamentally altered the conditions of economic security and progress 
for<BR>either the individual business man or the nation? The simple truth is 
that we do not know. The<BR>Committee was honest and scientific enough to say 
so. American business should be sane and<BR>sensible enough to recognize it. 
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=1>There is not a single new and important development 
in our economic life in recent years of<BR>which we can confidently calculate 
the consequences or judge the soundness and permanence.<BR>We have seen an 
amazing increase in man-hour production in industry since the war, but we<BR>do 
not know why it took place then, or whether it was merely a resumption of a 
rise, quite as<BR>rapid, that had been going on for fifty years before the war. 
We certainly do not know how<BR>long or rapidly it can continue, or, if it does, 
whether and how the problems of adjusting<BR>employment and consumer purchasing 
power to it will be met. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=1>We have seen new industries rise like rockets, and 
old ones grow tired and die. We do not<BR>know how soon the new ones will fizzle 
out, or what others will take their place. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=1>We have seen the machinery of distribution formed 
and reformed into new patterns changing<BR>every day before our eyes, but no one 
can say precisely where they leave the consumer and<BR>the independent 
enterpriser, or whether they will fundamentally alter the costs of 
distribution<BR>or mitigate the rigors of commercial competition. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=1>We have seen security prices soar out of sight of 
earnings, brokers' loans swell till they absorb<BR>a third of the banking 
resources of the country, and the blind pools of ancient days return 
and<BR>multiply by endless crossing and pyramiding as the investment trusts of 
today. Banks merge<BR>and emerge in chains, trailing trusts and holding 
companies, while industrial corporations pay<BR>dividends not by producing goods 
but by buying each others' stocks and by borrowing and<BR>lending everybody's 
money in the market. But of all these things can anyone say with surety<BR>what 
they signify, whether they are safe and sound, or what they are leading to? We 
do not<BR>even know, or cannot agree, whether inflation exists, what it means, 
or how it shall be<BR>measured. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=1>In face of the ignorance, uncertainty, and 
irrationality that surround every aspect of the "new<BR>era," it were wisdom for 
business to keep its feet firmly on the ground and assume for the<BR>present 
that the principles that prevailed through the long business past still govern 
the stability<BR>and success of business today. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=1>Business Week -- September 7, 1929 </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#ff0000 face=Arial size=1><STRONG>Other 1929 "New Era" 
Quotations</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=1>"Apparently there has been a fundamental change in 
criteria for judging security values.<BR>Widespread education of the public in 
the worth of equity securities has created a new<BR>demand." </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=1>The Outlook &amp; Independant Magazine, May 15, 
1929</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><BR><FONT size=1>"It has seemed to be taken for granted in 
speculative circles that this is a market of 'manifest<BR>destiny,' and that 
destiny is to go continuously forward. </FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=1>New York Times, September 1929</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><BR><FONT color=#ff0000 size=1><STRONG>Quotations from the 
last "New Era"</STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=1></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=1>"There seems to be a consensus that the present is 
something of a 'new era'... a number of<BR>conservative economists and 
businessmen now accept the idea that expansion can go<BR>indefinitely." 
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=1>U.S. News &amp; World Report, November15, 
1965</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><BR><FONT size=1>"Backers of the 'new economics' think 
Government now can keep the boom going<BR>indefinitely." </FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=1>U.S. News &amp; World Report, November 15, 
1965</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><BR><FONT size=1>"Plan just right, be prepared to act at 
the first sign of trouble, and recessions can be<BR>prevented." 
</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=1>U.S. News &amp; World Report, November 15, 
1965</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><BR><FONT size=1>"The United States has entered a new 
investment era to which the old guidelines no longer<BR>apply." 
</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=1>Barron's, February 3, 
1969</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
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From: "James Taylor" <jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Greenspan's FOMC Testimony March 22, 1994
Date: Sun, 16 Apr 2000 09:13:40 -0700
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<DIV><FONT size=1>Digging through Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes 
reveals that Alan Greenspan was worried about the stock market bubble as far 
back as 1994 when the DOW was at a mere 4000.&nbsp; Makes you wonder what he 
thinks today. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=1>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; "Everything that we know about 
markets is that abnormal rates of return, especially<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
those built on capital gains, cannot persist.&nbsp; Indeed, the closest example 
of this in recent<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; times was the pre-September 1992 
hedging, or I should say investments, in a number of<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
European currencies.&nbsp; You will recall that the Swedish kronor was yielding 
significantly more<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; that most money market 
instruments and the deutschemark.&nbsp; So everyone figured that 
the<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; kronor was locked into the deutschemark, and so 
investors took positions in the Swedish<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; kronor at 
high interest rates, hedging it in the deutschmark/dollar market, and got 
blown<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; apart. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=1>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; "I think we are looking at something 
not terribly significantly different in this current<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
situation.&nbsp; Prior to our move on February 4th, the market had drifted into 
a state of<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; somnamulance at low risk premiums, and 
there were steady upward price pressures.&nbsp; 
While<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <STRONG>we all recognized at the time that the 
stock market was a little dicey and we were worried<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
about the mutual funds, I don't think we were aware of the apparent underlying 
speculative<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; element involves in the markets on a 
worldwide basis</STRONG> that I think our February 
move<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; unearthed.&nbsp; I think it was a wakeup call 
which basically got everyone to look up and say:<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; How 
long can this go on?&nbsp; And if our wakeup call had not occurred on February 
4th, there<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; would have been another wakeup call 
coming some other time within days, weeks, or months. 
<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; I believe we in effect dislodged a brick from the 
edifice when it was vulnerable to being hit by<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
something.&nbsp; What actually eventually hit it was the Philadelphia Federal 
Reserve's February<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; publication.&nbsp; That morning 
the CPI came out at zero and the bond market took off; it rose 
to<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 6.39 percent on the 30-year bond, which was 10 
basis points above its level before we moved,<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; and by 
the end of the day the Philadelphia Fed index for February came out, it closed 
at 6.54<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; percent.&nbsp; Now, it wasn't the 
Philadelphia Fed index itself that moved the market; that was 
a<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; catalyst.&nbsp; The was we know that is that what 
the March index came out and the index turned<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
around, the bond market tried to rally and it rallied for about 10 minutes and 
got its head cut<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; off.&nbsp; So really, these are 
secondary catalysts to a far more fundamental restructuring 
that's<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; going on.&nbsp; News of the market structure 
are undergoing a major review at this stage and<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
portfolios are undergoing dramatic changes.&nbsp; We have seen some increase in 
yield spreads but<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; they are still quite low by any 
historic standard, which suggests to me that the 
adjustment<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; process in the capital markets, in the 
portfolios of pension funds, mutual funds, and 
individual<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; households, still have a long way to 
go.&nbsp; I'm not saying that means that interest rates have 
to<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; adjust; I mean that the portfolios are out of 
kilter and are still being adjusted. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=1>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; "When we moved on February 4th, I 
think our expectation was that we would <STRONG>prick 
the<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; bubble in the equity markets</STRONG>.&nbsp; 
What in fact occurred is that, as evidence of the 
dramatic<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; shift in the economic outlook began to 
emerge after we moved and long-term rates began to<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
move up, we were also clearly getting a major upward increase in expectations of 
corporate<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; earnings.&nbsp; While the stock market 
went down after our actions on February 4th, it has 
gone<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; down really quite marginally on net over this 
period.&nbsp; <STRONG>So what has occurred is that while 
this<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; capital gains bubble in all financial assets 
had to come down</STRONG>, instead of the decline<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
being concentrated int he stock area, it shifted over into the bond area.&nbsp; 
But the effects<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; are the same.&nbsp; These are major 
capital losses, which have required very dramatic changes 
in<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; the actions and activities on the part of 
individuals and institutions." </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=1>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; - Alan 
Greenspan, Federal Open Market Committee meeting, March 22, 1994</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=1>Full text of Open Market Meeting</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=1><A 
href="http://www.itulip.com/940322Meeting.pdf";>http://www.itulip.com/940322Meeting.pdf</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>
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From: "Michael Ferguson" <wl7bdn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
References: <01d901bfa7bb$adebd4e0$248c15cf@xxxx>
Subject: [RT] Re: Good News for Longs (a possible delay before the real selling begins ?)
Date: Sun, 16 Apr 2000 11:14:56 -0500
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<DIV><FONT face="Century Schoolbook">While I agree with you that there is&nbsp;a 
bursting bubble, I am perplexed as to how buying futures contracts alters the 
price of stocks that are under distribution. If this is how the market works it 
is news to me. I thought that the futures contract reflected the best guess of 
the future value of the component securities in a cause-effect relationship. If 
this is wrong, if the futures do not anticipate the cash, I want to know how it 
<STRONG><U>really</U></STRONG> works!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Century Schoolbook">Thanks,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Michael</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A href="mailto:jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>James 
  Taylor</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; 
  title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 16, 2000 10:51</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [RT] Good News for Longs (a 
  possible delay before the real selling begins ?)</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>
  <DIV>Good news for the scared longs, I do believe that the Fed's Plunge 
  Protection Team is anxiously watching the market and will be buying this week 
  to prevent the whole ponzi-scheme from coming unraveled.&nbsp; They will 
  support the market by buying futures (as I believe they did the day the Nasdaq 
  dropped 500 a week ago).&nbsp; But the good news will not last long, as the 
  mutual fund inflows are likely already spent ($14 billion)&nbsp; and now in 
  the pockets of shorts, the get-rich mentality of the burned daytraders has 
  changed, and the lock-up period for a massive pile of stock ($150 Billion) of 
  last year's Internet IPOs (250 last year alone) is upon us, and productivity 
  numbers are due out May 14th (and&nbsp;it should be judgement 
  day).&nbsp;&nbsp; I would(will) be a seller of any rallies for the near term, 
  especially stocks that have not yet suffered major drops that are sitting on a 
  mountain of gains.</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>and the sheep shall be shorn.........</DIV>
  <DIV><A 
  href="http://www.itulip.com/sheeple.html";>http://www.itulip.com/sheeple.html</A></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>Quotation of the day -- from the Motley Fool Bulletin Board</DIV>
  <DIV>"As I sit tonight - I have no shares of Celera in my account and 
  an<BR>account that was worth almost $60,000 and was full of 6 
  promising,<BR>fantastic stocks is now worth $0." </DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Definition of the day</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT color=#ff0000 size=2>Panic</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>panicn1 : a sudden overpowering fright; esp : a sudden 
  unreasoning terror often accompanied by mass flight 2 : a sudden widespread 
  fright concerning financial affairs and resulting in a depression of values 
  caused by violent measures for protection of securities or other property 
  </FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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Message-ID: <021b01bfa7bf$aac20f60$248c15cf@xxxx>
From: "James Taylor" <jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
References: <01d901bfa7bb$adebd4e0$248c15cf@xxxx> <004401bfa7be$f97e6be0$1701c1d1@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Re: Good News for Longs (a possible delay before the real selling begins ?)
Date: Sun, 16 Apr 2000 09:20:18 -0700
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The investment houses watch the futures market and 
base their</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>buy and sell programs on the actions of the 
market.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>I do however think their options are limited, since I do 
believe that they are 'all in', and the mass exodus will be swift.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A href="mailto:wl7bdn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=wl7bdn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>Michael 
  Ferguson</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
  href="mailto:jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; 
  title=jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> ; <A 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; 
  title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 16, 2000 9:14 
AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [RT] Good News for Longs (a 
  possible delay before the real selling begins ?)</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face="Century Schoolbook">While I agree with you that there 
  is&nbsp;a bursting bubble, I am perplexed as to how buying futures contracts 
  alters the price of stocks that are under distribution. If this is how the 
  market works it is news to me. I thought that the futures contract reflected 
  the best guess of the future value of the component securities in a 
  cause-effect relationship. If this is wrong, if the futures do not anticipate 
  the cash, I want to know how it <STRONG><U>really</U></STRONG> 
  works!</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face="Century Schoolbook">Thanks,</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>Michael</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE 
  style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
    <A href="mailto:jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; 
    title=jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>James Taylor</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; 
    title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 16, 2000 
10:51</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [RT] Good News for Longs (a 
    possible delay before the real selling begins ?)</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>
    <DIV>Good news for the scared longs, I do believe that the Fed's Plunge 
    Protection Team is anxiously watching the market and will be buying this 
    week to prevent the whole ponzi-scheme from coming unraveled.&nbsp; They 
    will support the market by buying futures (as I believe they did the day the 
    Nasdaq dropped 500 a week ago).&nbsp; But the good news will not last long, 
    as the mutual fund inflows are likely already spent ($14 billion)&nbsp; and 
    now in the pockets of shorts, the get-rich mentality of the burned 
    daytraders has changed, and the lock-up period for a massive pile of stock 
    ($150 Billion) of last year's Internet IPOs (250 last year alone) is upon 
    us, and productivity numbers are due out May 14th (and&nbsp;it should be 
    judgement day).&nbsp;&nbsp; I would(will) be a seller of any rallies for the 
    near term, especially stocks that have not yet suffered major drops that are 
    sitting on a mountain of gains.</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>and the sheep shall be shorn.........</DIV>
    <DIV><A 
    href="http://www.itulip.com/sheeple.html";>http://www.itulip.com/sheeple.html</A></DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>Quotation of the day -- from the Motley Fool Bulletin Board</DIV>
    <DIV>"As I sit tonight - I have no shares of Celera in my account and 
    an<BR>account that was worth almost $60,000 and was full of 6 
    promising,<BR>fantastic stocks is now worth $0." </DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>Definition of the day</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT color=#ff0000 size=2>Panic</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>panicn1 : a sudden overpowering fright; esp : a sudden 
    unreasoning terror often accompanied by mass flight 2 : a sudden widespread 
    fright concerning financial affairs and resulting in a depression of values 
    caused by violent measures for protection of securities or other property 
    </FONT></DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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Date: Sun, 16 Apr 2000 09:33:03 -0700
From: Ira Tunik <ist@xxxxxx>
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Subject: [RT] Re: Good News for Longs (a possible delay before the real 
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<body bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
It works, in this case, as an arb.&nbsp; If the futures become over priced,
the arbitrageurs step in an buy a basket of stocks and sell the S&amp;P
futures.&nbsp; They then receive the higher interest rate upon their investment,
fully hedged, and the dividends.&nbsp; When equilibrium is once again reached
the fed steps in and drives the futures higher, and the arbitrageurs do
the rest.&nbsp; Now you have rising stock prices and rising futures prices.&nbsp;
So the tail at times really does wag the dog.&nbsp; Ira
<p>Michael Ferguson wrote:
<blockquote TYPE=CITE><style></style>
<font face="Century Schoolbook">While
I agree with you that there is a bursting bubble, I am perplexed as to
how buying futures contracts alters the price of stocks that are under
distribution. If this is how the market works it is news to me. I thought
that the futures contract reflected the best guess of the future value
of the component securities in a cause-effect relationship. If this is
wrong, if the futures do not anticipate the cash, I want to know how it
<b><u>really</u></b> works!</font>&nbsp;<font face="Century Schoolbook">Thanks,</font>&nbsp;&nbsp;Michael&nbsp;&nbsp;
<blockquote 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----</div>

<div 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><b>From:</b>
<a href="mailto:jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; title="jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx">James
Taylor</a></div>

<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>To:</b> realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</div>

<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>Sent:</b> Sunday, April 16, 2000 10:51</div>

<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>Subject:</b> [RT] Good News for Longs
(a possible delay before the real selling begins ?)</div>
&nbsp;<font face="Arial"><font size=-1>Good news for the scared longs,
I do believe that the Fed's Plunge Protection Team is anxiously watching
the market and will be buying this week to prevent the whole ponzi-scheme
from coming unraveled.&nbsp; They will support the market by buying futures
(as I believe they did the day the Nasdaq dropped 500 a week ago).&nbsp;
But the good news will not last long, as the mutual fund inflows are likely
already spent ($14 billion)&nbsp; and now in the pockets of shorts, the
get-rich mentality of the burned daytraders has changed, and the lock-up
period for a massive pile of stock ($150 Billion) of last year's Internet
IPOs (250 last year alone) is upon us, and productivity numbers are due
out May 14th (and it should be judgement day).&nbsp;&nbsp; I would(will)
be a seller of any rallies for the near term, especially stocks that have
not yet suffered major drops that are sitting on a mountain of gains.</font></font>&nbsp;<font face="Arial"><font size=-1>and
the sheep shall be shorn.........</font></font><font face="Arial"><font size=-1>http://www.itulip.com/sheeple.html</font></font>&nbsp;&nbsp;<font face="Arial"><font size=-1>Quotation
of the day -- from the Motley Fool Bulletin Board</font></font><font face="Arial"><font size=-1>"As
I sit tonight - I have no shares of Celera in my account and an</font></font>
<br><font face="Arial"><font size=-1>account that was worth almost $60,000
and was full of 6 promising,</font></font>
<br><font face="Arial"><font size=-1>fantastic stocks is now worth $0."</font></font>&nbsp;&nbsp;<font face="Arial"><font size=-1>Definition
of the day</font></font><font face="Arial"><font color="#FF0000"><font size=-1>Panic</font></font></font><font face="Arial"><font size=-1>panicn1
: a sudden overpowering fright; esp : a sudden unreasoning terror often
accompanied by mass flight 2 : a sudden widespread fright concerning financial
affairs and resulting in a depression of values caused by violent measures
for protection of securities or other property</font></font>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</blockquote>
</blockquote>

</body>
</html>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Apr 16 10:00:50 2000
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To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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Subject: [RT] Re: Good News for Longs (a possible delay before the real selling begins ?)
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<META content="MSHTML 5.00.3013.2600" name=GENERATOR></HEAD>
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<DIV><FONT face="Century Schoolbook">Ira,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Century Schoolbook">I understand the theory now. This should be 
testable somehow. Would the premium be inverted, or how would you quantify this 
action? Does this&nbsp;work as an underwriting setup with the fed backing the 
large houses? And, what does this do to the hedge funds?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Michael</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  Ira Tunik </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; 
  title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 16, 2000 11:33</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [RT] Re: Good News for Longs (a 
  possible delay before the real selling begins ?)</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>It works, in this case, as an arb.&nbsp; If the futures become 
  over priced, the arbitrageurs step in an buy a basket of stocks and sell the 
  S&amp;P futures.&nbsp; They then receive the higher interest rate upon their 
  investment, fully hedged, and the dividends.&nbsp; When equilibrium is once 
  again reached the fed steps in and drives the futures higher, and the 
  arbitrageurs do the rest.&nbsp; Now you have rising stock prices and rising 
  futures prices.&nbsp; So the tail at times really does wag the dog.&nbsp; Ira 
  <P>Michael Ferguson wrote: 
  <BLOCKQUOTE TYPE="CITE">
    <STYLE></STYLE>
    <FONT face="Century Schoolbook">While I agree with you that there is a 
    bursting bubble, I am perplexed as to how buying futures contracts alters 
    the price of stocks that are under distribution. If this is how the market 
    works it is news to me. I thought that the futures contract reflected the 
    best guess of the future value of the component securities in a cause-effect 
    relationship. If this is wrong, if the futures do not anticipate the cash, I 
    want to know how it <B><U>really</U></B> works!</FONT>&nbsp;<FONT 
    face="Century Schoolbook">Thanks,</FONT>&nbsp;&nbsp;Michael&nbsp;&nbsp; 
    <BLOCKQUOTE 
    style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----</DIV>
      <DIV 
      style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
      <A href="mailto:jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; 
      title=jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>James Taylor</A></DIV>
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
      href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; 
      title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A></DIV>
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, April 16, 2000 
      10:51</DIV>
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [RT] Good News for Longs (a 
      possible delay before the real selling begins ?)</DIV>&nbsp;<FONT 
      face=Arial><FONT size=-1>Good news for the scared longs, I do believe that 
      the Fed's Plunge Protection Team is anxiously watching the market and will 
      be buying this week to prevent the whole ponzi-scheme from coming 
      unraveled.&nbsp; They will support the market by buying futures (as I 
      believe they did the day the Nasdaq dropped 500 a week ago).&nbsp; But the 
      good news will not last long, as the mutual fund inflows are likely 
      already spent ($14 billion)&nbsp; and now in the pockets of shorts, the 
      get-rich mentality of the burned daytraders has changed, and the lock-up 
      period for a massive pile of stock ($150 Billion) of last year's Internet 
      IPOs (250 last year alone) is upon us, and productivity numbers are due 
      out May 14th (and it should be judgement day).&nbsp;&nbsp; I would(will) 
      be a seller of any rallies for the near term, especially stocks that have 
      not yet suffered major drops that are sitting on a mountain of 
      gains.</FONT></FONT>&nbsp;<FONT face=Arial><FONT size=-1>and the sheep 
      shall be shorn.........</FONT></FONT><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=-1><A 
      href="http://www.itulip.com/sheeple.html";>http://www.itulip.com/sheeple.html</A></FONT></FONT>&nbsp;&nbsp;<FONT 
      face=Arial><FONT size=-1>Quotation of the day -- from the Motley Fool 
      Bulletin Board</FONT></FONT><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=-1>"As I sit 
      tonight - I have no shares of Celera in my account and an</FONT></FONT> 
      <BR><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=-1>account that was worth almost $60,000 
      and was full of 6 promising,</FONT></FONT> <BR><FONT face=Arial><FONT 
      size=-1>fantastic stocks is now worth $0."</FONT></FONT>&nbsp;&nbsp;<FONT 
      face=Arial><FONT size=-1>Definition of the day</FONT></FONT><FONT 
      face=Arial><FONT color=#ff0000><FONT 
      size=-1>Panic</FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=-1>panicn1 : 
      a sudden overpowering fright; esp : a sudden unreasoning terror often 
      accompanied by mass flight 2 : a sudden widespread fright concerning 
      financial affairs and resulting in a depression of values caused by 
      violent measures for protection of securities or other 
      property</FONT></FONT>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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Date: Sun, 16 Apr 2000 13:27:51 -0500
From: Lester Ingber <ingber@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Re: LISTING of RT CONTRIBUTOR URLs
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Status:   

Peyton (& Jim & Chris):

: How about this....anyone on RT with a site or webpage they either created 
: individually or are aware of as a good reference tool,... a page created by 
: someone else on RT where quality information is shared freely,..etc......
: please send me the link (URL) and I will keep track of these and post them 
: to the RT group in a week or so.

I get several hundred downloads a day from site www.ingber.com which
offers free code and papers relevant to work in several branches of
finance.  However, I don't know how useful it would be to RT readers to
try to distinguish between "academic-but-useful" vs "commercial" sites,
etc.  I think that just as with any journal, the Editor has to assume
the responsibility to make a final decision on which sites to include.

Lester

P.S.
In the context of looking for correlations among markets, if you use
"standard" statistics you are implicitly assuming normal distributions.

You may not wish to do this, e.g., if you are looking at correlations
among options, and you are using "standard" Black-Scholes pricing
algorithms, you might consider having correlations among log-normal
multivariate markets.  If you with to use a different distribution for
markets, e.g., as you might determine from your own fits to data over
time scales you are trading, then those distributions should be used, etc.

If you don't want to bother with all this, i.e., if you feel it is
unnecessary, fine.  If you do want to bother with this, you have to
bother with setting up your algorithms, doing nonlinear optimization to
find the correlations, etc.  (This is an example of how/why some people
use my optimization codes.)

L

-- 
 Lester Ingber   <ingber@xxxxxxxxxx>         http://www.ingber.com/
 PO Box 06440    Wacker Dr PO Sears Tower    Chicago IL  60606-0440
 <ingber@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> http://www.alumni.caltech.edu/~ingber/