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To paraphrase, forecasting accurately is difficult, especially about the
future!
However, read the non-fiction "The Engines of Creation" by K. Eric Drexler
(full text is available on the web at
http://www.foresight.org/EOC/index.html) to start. Also read the novel "The
Diamond Age" by Neil Stephenson.
1.What happens to the price of Lumber when nano-assemblers "grow" buildings
molecule by molecule from from dirt and sand? (See
http://www.foresight.org/EOC/EOC_Chapter_4.html#section03of03 for an idea of
how this will happen)
2. What happens to the prices of grains, meats and foods when any meal or
beverage you want can be made from their basic elements (carbon, oxygen,
hydrongen, nitrogen, etc.) in a couple of minutes in a microwave oven-sized
device on your kitchen counter?
3. What happens to the price of Fibers when nano-assemblers "grow" clothes
molecule by molecule from carbon?
4. What happens to the price of Metals when they extracted cheaply from
seawater, or dirt-cheap nanorobots can extract every molecule of gold from a
mountain, or when a robot space-tug can push an asteroid of pure nickle into
earth orbit.
Of course, these are futuristic scenarios, but when it happens, and it will
happen, the prices of the affected commodities will drop quickly and never
return. That's what happened with aluminum, and that was with slow,
mid-1800's technology.
You *are* right in that, if you are a diversified scaletrader, you probably
won't get wiped out. It is just a much better strategy to do what Ira says:
Find a good trend in some timeframe and trade it.
Wishing you much profit,
Robert
----- Original Message -----
From: <Scaletrade@xxxxxxx>
To: <robert@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, April 14, 2000 8:46 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Fw: OPT - averaging down on MSFT leaps
> I get your point about the possibility of a repricing event in
commodities,
> but if you have to go back to the 1800's for the example, that feels
pretty
> safe, so long as you are diversified. I'm curious, which commodities do
you
> think are at greatest risk for a major change in permanent price...any
> besides palladium (catalytic converters) and silver (film)?
>
> Larry
>
> In a message dated 04/13/2000 11:53:06 PM Pacific Daylight Time,
> robert@xxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
>
> > The case I have in mind is aluminum. There was a time in the 1800's
when
> > the wealthy kept their aluminum plates alongside their gold and silver
> > plates. Aluminum was over $100 an ounce, if I remember correctly.
Then
> > the Hall effect was discovered, which allowed Aluminum to be extracted
> > cheaply from aluminum oxide ore, which is extremely abundant. Aluminum
has
> > never gone back up.
> >
> > With rapid advancements in biotechnology and nanotechnology, I forecast
> that
> > by 2050 several commodities trading today will lose most of their
current
> > value, never to return.
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