|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
We are getting into really bearish talk here. .That's quite a change from couple months
ago...
Gwenn
Ira Tunik wrote:
> The next question is, if a 50% reduction in NAV requires liquidation, how many mutual
> funds will go under in an extended slide? What happens when their liquidation hits
> the market? Look to the 70's when most of the funds disappeared into the sunset. Ira
>
> Joe Frabosilio wrote:
>
> > Gwenael,
> >
> > I agree on that, the market should see big volatilities. It wasn't from any chart
> > or story on the net. Just observing the people around me, who all of a sudden got
> > started on trading stocks and didn't know what they were doing. (NO Plan). On
> > Wednesday I must have recieved about 10 phone calls from people wanting to know,
> > whats up with MSFT. By the 5th phone call on the same stock and person I didn't
> > even really know, I said that report will cost you $40. One of the questions I
> > asked was, what is your time frame? Since they all claimed to be investors. On
> > the other end of the phone sounded something like this, @!$%@#$^#@^, translation,
> > not a clue.
> >
> > So they were investors acting like traders. I'm expecting some margin calls to
> > start coming in since, these traders/investors are scared to death of a drop and
> > they bought NOK, MSFT, NITE etc, near the All time highs.
> >
> > Funny thing thou, I haven't heard or seen commericals on Mutual Funds. Someone
> > on another email listing said that their Mutual Funds are down a lot and hoping
> > for a recovery.
> >
> > So, Yes there is going to be some interesting days ahead. Will they buy on the
> > dips, or sell into the rallies? After selling into the rally, where will they put
> > their money???
> >
> > Sorry for the long gab,
> >
> > TradeWell,
> > Joe Frabosilio
> >
> > Gwenael Gautier wrote:
> >
> > > Hum, I wonder if this market will not test all of us in some way, both longs,
> > > shorts, value and tech holders...
> > >
> > > I really expect big volatilities...
> > >
> > > Gwenn
> > >
> > > Prosper wrote:
> > >
> > > > Avoiding a fight in the markets is a little like trying to win a tug of war
> > > > hands off. Although the markets are getting more and more volatile, there is
> > > > little long term evidence that the market is in any sort of down trend.
> > > >
> > > > On the attached Monthly chart of the S&P futures the white line is the mid
> > > > point of the range and we don't even have evidence of weakness. Until the
> > > > white line goes below the green line no weakness, and until the white line
> > > > goes below the 1X1 angle the up trend is in force. I still see this market
> > > > making the target I mentioned previously. To get it simply multiply the 1929
> > > > high by 40.
> > > >
> > > > Prosper
> > > >
> > > > > There is this old rule: when witnessing a domestic fight, don't meddle
> > > > > or you will end up hit by both...
> > > > >
> > > > > At the moment we are witnessing such a fight:
> > > > > - longs vs shorts,
> > > > > - believers in old against believers in new economy,
> > > > > - new business models vs valuation criteria
> > > > > - believers in sweeping changes through internet, vs belief there ain't
> > > > > anything new
> > > > > - herds fleeing from group of stocks to other
> > > > > - etc
> > > > >
> > > > > A few weeks ago, saying I am moving out of stocks, I got laughed at.
> > > > > Well I exited too early admittedly, but now I don't hear anything
> > > > > anymore about why I should remain long. instead, many are pondering how
> > > > > far down we could go, targets, short selling opportunities etc. I know I
> > > > > am certainly too early again, but I know it never comes as everyone
> > > > > expects. My view is we'll have neither the clean crash nor the clean run
> > > > > back up, we'll have a nice saloon door. Too many have made (big) money
> > > > > in too short a time. The market being the best device ever invented to
> > > > > separate portfolios from their cash, I presume we are entering a period
> > > > > where it will remain wildly unpredictable without regular and long
> > > > > enough trends, so that everyone will get hit no matter what they do.
> > > > >
> > > > > In my view, this is the time where you typically a/ pull out completely
> > > > > or b/ follow your system religiously, hoping the drawdown won't be too
> > > > > bad. In other words, this years profitability will be played out now,
> > > > > measured by the amount of discipline one can retain in the face of
> > > > > extreme and shifting emotions.
> > > > >
> > > > > Gwenn
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> > > > Name: snap.gif
> > > > snap.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> > > > Encoding: base64
|